Storm Warning 211, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 280001
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
160 NM WEST OF GAMBELL AND WEAKEN TO 983 MB FRI AFTERNOON THEN
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 997 MB SAT AFTERNOON. A 992 MB
LOW 380 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 260 NM SOUTHEAST OF
COLD BAY AND STRENGTHEN TO 987 MB FRI AFTERNOON THEN WILL DISSIPATE
300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
28 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 27 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-281500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-281500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-281500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ170-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-281500-
UNALASKA BAY
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-281500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-281500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
300 PM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED DEC 26 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THOUGH THE GFS
IS STILL THE PREFERRED MODEL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE STORM CENTERED NEAR DUTCH HARBOR IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH A WELL DEFINED FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO BRISTOL BAY.
THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD COVERS MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND HAS MOVED
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.

A UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR AND IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIES
OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST WITH SECONDARY CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA, YUKON TERRITORY AND
NORTHERN ALASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOWS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WILL EXTEND A TOUGH INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE GULF
AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND UNDER A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AND WILL MOVE A LITTLE WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
THE WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY MORNING. GALE TO POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AREAS OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE LARGE INTENSE STORM NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR DILLINGHAM THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS OVER STORM FORCE
EAST WINDS OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DIMINISH AS THE CENTER ENTERS THE
BAY THURSDAY MORNING.

STORM FORCE WEST WINDS IN THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD CREATE STORM SURGE 6 FEET
ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMIC TIDE LEVELS.

OTHERWISE SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
THE LARGE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
LOW. POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA BEGINNING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA DRIFTS SOUTH AND EXTENDS A TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP BUILD AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SATURDAY THEN WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN ALASKA.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL MIRROR THE EVENTS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE.
THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEN WILL WEAKEN AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY AND THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN
SATURDAY AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR BRISTOL BAY.
MARINE...STORM 120, 130, 138, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170
         GALE 138, 140, 175, 176, 179, 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 07