Small Craft Advisory 1091, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED DEC 26 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THOUGH THE GFS
IS STILL THE PREFERRED MODEL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE STORM CENTERED NEAR DUTCH HARBOR IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH A WELL DEFINED FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO BRISTOL BAY.
THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD COVERS MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND HAS MOVED
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.

A UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR AND IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIES
OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST WITH SECONDARY CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA, YUKON TERRITORY AND
NORTHERN ALASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOWS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WILL EXTEND A TOUGH INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE GULF
AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND UNDER A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AND WILL MOVE A LITTLE WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
THE WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY MORNING. GALE TO POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AREAS OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE LARGE INTENSE STORM NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR DILLINGHAM THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS OVER STORM FORCE
EAST WINDS OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DIMINISH AS THE CENTER ENTERS THE
BAY THURSDAY MORNING.

STORM FORCE WEST WINDS IN THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD CREATE STORM SURGE 6 FEET
ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMIC TIDE LEVELS.

OTHERWISE SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
THE LARGE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
LOW. POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA BEGINNING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA DRIFTS SOUTH AND EXTENDS A TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP BUILD AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SATURDAY THEN WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN ALASKA.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL MIRROR THE EVENTS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE.
THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEN WILL WEAKEN AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY AND THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN
SATURDAY AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR BRISTOL BAY.
MARINE...STORM 120, 130, 138, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170
         GALE 138, 140, 175, 176, 179, 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 07