Storm Warning 189, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 081236
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 985 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF SAINT GEORGE THIS MORNING MOVES NORTH 
AND MERGES INTO AN ALREADY EXISTING NEARLY STATIONARY 982 MB LOW 250
NM WEST OF SAINT GEORGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
MOVES NORTH TO UMNAK ISLAND AT 983 MB SAT NIGHT...THEN NORTH TO NEAR
SAINT MATTHEW AT 970 MB SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-090300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-090300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-090300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-090300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CURRENTLY A STRONG UPPER LOW AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE YAKUTAT AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THAT IS DISSIPATING AS IT IS FORCED NORTH ACROSS THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS. THE 110 KT JET STREAM FLOWS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
INTO THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL NUMEROUS
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH FORM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND MOVE
NORTH INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOTS OF WARM AIR NORTH
FROM THE TROPICS INTO THE ALASKA MAINLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT GFS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ALASKA PENINSULA LOW AND ITS
TRAJECTORY NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW AND THE
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT SOUTH OF SEGUAM ISLAND. THE LONGER TERM
SOLUTIONS ARE STILL SUSPECT AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT AS
GOOD BUT GENERALLY THE SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR CONSIDERING THE HIGHLY
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE PRIMARY ISSUE IN THE LOG TERM IS WHETHER
THE LOW WILL BE ONE LARGE STRONG LOW ORE SEVERAL SMALLER WEAKER LOWS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE WEAK LOW NOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DISSPATE AS IT MOVES
NORTH. THE INCOMING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AK PENINSULA LOW IS
SPREADING WARM AIR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
THE LOW CROSSING THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE DELTA
FASTER THAN THE MORNING FORECAST HAD INDICATED AND WILL BE REFLECTED
IN THIS AFTERNOONS FOERCAST PACKAGE. THE LOW WILL PUSH NORTH WITH THE
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. THEREFORE
WE EXPECT SNOW TO BE LIKELY THORUGH SATURDAY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

SNOW AND RAIN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER KODIAK ISLAND AS THE WARM AIR
MOVES IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE EXPECT WARMER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUND RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
REGION THROUGH SAT EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WHICH SUPPORTS CONTINUED PRECIPITATION FOR THE VALDEZ TO THOMPSON
PASS AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT THE STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TONGIHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE BERING COAST. AS IS
USUAL EXPECT THE DOWN SLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CHUGACH TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF COOK INLET TO THE PALMER REGION.
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT
SNOW IN THE NORTHER SUSITNA VALLEY TO BECOME HEAVIER AND WE MAY NEED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE AREA FROM CHULITNA NORTH.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE LOW NEAR ADAK WITH ANOTHER CENTER TO THE SOUTH
OF SEGUAM ISLAND WITH A WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN THESE LOW AND THE AK
PENINSULA LOW. WE EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO ERSUE OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE SATURDAY. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
CHAIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AS
IT CORSSES THEM TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE TREND
OF LOWS TO MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO ADVERTISE A TRANSITION BACK TO A
COLDER PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 130 132 138 170.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 132 140 150 155 160 171 172
         351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SAM DEC 07