Small Craft Advisory 1027, NWS Anchorage, AK

CORRECTED WATCH WARNING SUMMARY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU DEC 6 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AND IT IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO A GOOD SOLUTION FROM ALL OF THE CLUTTER. SO THE BEST WE
CAN DO UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES IS TO DISCUSS THE WEATHER IN VERY
GENERAL TERMS. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND THE GULF IS STILL MOVING EAST. THE
COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND EASTERN RUSSIA HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY. A SOUTHERLY JET AT 300 MB OVER THE
WESTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO FEED WARMER MOIST AIR INTO THE STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...
THE MAIN SURFACE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH.
THE WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
AND KODIAK ISLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
AHEAD OF IT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL RIPPLE UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND NORTHWEST CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY. AS EACH SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA, PRECIPITATION AND LOCAL
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP. CURRENTLY A WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY
WILL SPREAD INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, MATANUSKA VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN LATER TONIGHT. LOCAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. YOU CAN EXPECT MORE
RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL SECTION AND SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOCAL STRONG WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN.

BEYOND THIS POINT, THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES BECOME UNCERTAIN,
THOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE CURRENT FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE Y-K DELTA SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE
OVER NORTON SOUND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
ROLL THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE RAIN AND WIND WILL
MOVE INTO THE AKPEN FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR SECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THIS IS THE AREA OF GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. A LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW MAY
FORM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA SATURDAY,

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS FOR DAY 4 THROUGH DAY 7 NOT HAVE A CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND
I WILL NOT GUESS AT A FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...130 132 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 179
180 185 352 412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 07