Gale Warning 967, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 071221
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-080300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 989 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT THIS MORNING CROSSES THE
ALASKA PENINSULA NEAR SAND POINT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO NEAR
TOGIAK TONIGHT. A 982 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA THIS MORNING
MOVES TO 250 NM NORTH OF AMCHITKA SAT MORNING AT 988 MB AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY. A 987 MB LOW FORMS NEAR UMNAK ISLAND THIS EVENING
THEN MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO 130 NM EAST OF SAINT PAUL
SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-080300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-080300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-080300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.  
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-080300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-080300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-080300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-080300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-080300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-080300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-080300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-080300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-080300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

CORRECTED WATCH WARNING SUMMARY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU DEC 6 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AND IT IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO A GOOD SOLUTION FROM ALL OF THE CLUTTER. SO THE BEST WE
CAN DO UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES IS TO DISCUSS THE WEATHER IN VERY
GENERAL TERMS. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND THE GULF IS STILL MOVING EAST. THE
COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND EASTERN RUSSIA HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY. A SOUTHERLY JET AT 300 MB OVER THE
WESTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO FEED WARMER MOIST AIR INTO THE STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...
THE MAIN SURFACE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH.
THE WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
AND KODIAK ISLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
AHEAD OF IT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL RIPPLE UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND NORTHWEST CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY. AS EACH SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA, PRECIPITATION AND LOCAL
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP. CURRENTLY A WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY
WILL SPREAD INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, MATANUSKA VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN LATER TONIGHT. LOCAL GUSTY WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. YOU CAN EXPECT MORE
RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL SECTION AND SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOCAL STRONG WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN.

BEYOND THIS POINT, THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES BECOME UNCERTAIN,
THOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE CURRENT FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE Y-K DELTA SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE
OVER NORTON SOUND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
ROLL THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE RAIN AND WIND WILL
MOVE INTO THE AKPEN FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR SECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THIS IS THE AREA OF GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. A LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW MAY
FORM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA SATURDAY,

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS FOR DAY 4 THROUGH DAY 7 NOT HAVE A CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND
I WILL NOT GUESS AT A FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...130 132 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 179
180 185 352 412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 07