Storm Warning 186, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 051419 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
520 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

UPDATED ZONE 155

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 952 MB LOW 150 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA THIS MORNING MOVES TO NEAR
SAINT MATTHEW AT 970 MB ON THU...THEN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE BERING STRAIT LATE THU NIGHT. ON THU 
NIGHT...A 975 MB LOW MOVES NORTH TO NEAR AMCHITKA...AND A 970 MB LOW
MOVES NORTH TO 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR.
$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
520 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO
65 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.   

$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 60 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 060014
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 960 MB LOW 350 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA FRI MORNING AND WEAK TO 991 MB FRI AFTERNOON. A 987 MB
LOW FORMING 270 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 110 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ADAK AND STRENGTH TO 979 MB FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 996
MB LOW 660 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 100 NM WEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR AND STRENGTHEN TO 969 MB FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-061500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-061500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-061500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-061500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-061500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-061500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MAJOR UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MOST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING IS
PROVIDING SUPPORT TO TWO SURFACE LOWS...ONE IN THE BERING AND ONE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THESE TWO LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  THE LOW IN THE
GULF WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE WHILE THE LOW IN THE BERING WILL BE
ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST.  AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST...PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE SEA OF JAPAN.  THIS RETROGRADE MOTION WILL CAUSE
THE LOW IN THE BERING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AS WELL...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IT WILL WEAKEN AND GET ABSORBED BY THE STRONGER LOW TO
THE WEST AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE SHORT TERM THIS
MORNING.  FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM AGAIN.  AFTER
60 HOURS MODELS START TO DISAGREE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWS IN THE
BERING SEA.  ALL OF THE MODELS WANT TO STRENGTHEN A NEW LOW MOVING UP
FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE FORECAST CENTRAL PRESSURE
VALUES VARY SLIGHTLY WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST.  THE CHOICE LAST
NIGHT AFTER ABOUT 80 HOURS WAS TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE AK RANGE...
COLD AIR POOLING IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND DRAINING INTO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS
SO PRECIP WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW.  THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE
TIGHTENED GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS
CAUSING GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE ALL ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.
WINDS AND SNOW ARE COMBINING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS CAUSING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THOSE AREAS
TODAY.  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH AND THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
CONTINUE IN THE MARINE AREAS WHERE A BARRIER JET IS CAUSING SOME
STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.  A SECOND SHOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT WEST MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.  THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY GUSTY
WINDS BUT THE FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MEANING THAT
ANCHORAGE HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE INCLUDING THE AK PEN...
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE ARE
BEING AFFECTED BY THE LOW IN THE GULF...THIS INCLUDES MAINLY ILIAMNA,
WHERE CONTINUES TO FALL THIS MORNING.  ELSEWHERE THE LOW IN THE
BERING SEA IS BRINGING MOST OF THE WEATHER ONSHORE.  BANDS OF SNOW
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.  THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING HOWEVER THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT
ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING MORE WINDS AND PRECIP.
PRECIP WILL START OUT AS SNOW BUT SOON MIX WITH RAIN...FIRST IN THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION AND THEN INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

IN THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS..
THE STRONG LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE MARINE AND A HIGH WIND
WARNING TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.  THIS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE
LOW MOVES EASTWARD BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TO KEEP THE WINDS HIGH FOR QUITE A WHILE.  STORM WARNINGS
WILL PERVADE THE BERING AS THIS LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.  ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON A LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC INTO THE BERING SEA.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS AND PRECIP INTO THE ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY AND ONTO THE MAINLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SO EXPECT TO SEE A RAIN SNOW MIX ALONG
THE WEST COAST.  SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MAY ESCAPE THE WARM AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO SEE RAIN BY THE
END.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 125 131
         SNOW ADVISORY 121
         HIGH WIND WARNING 191
         HIGH WIND WATCH 187
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 132 140 179 185 171 180 165 160 155 150
         STORMS 175 172 170
         HURRICANE FORCE 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF DEC 07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1119 PM AST TUE DEC 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 AM     BLIZZARD         5 WSW WHITTIER          60.77N 148.79W
12/04/2007                                      AK   ASOS

            BLIZZARD OCCURRED BETWEEN 953 AM AND 200 PM ON THE 4TH.
            PEAK WIND GUSTS WERE 45 MPH AND VISIBILITIES WERE BETWEEN
            ZERO AND ONE QUARTER MILE. ALSO VERIFIED BY NWS EMPLOYEE
            FROM WFO ANCHORAGE.

&&

DV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1243 AM AST WED DEC 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 100 SW SHEMYA           60.10N 148.65W
12/04/2007  M75 MPH                             AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            ACTUAL DISTANCE 175 MILES FROM SHEMYA. SATELLITE MEASURED
            SCATTEROMETER WIND. VALUE TAKEN FROM AWIPS PLOT.

&&

DV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1253 AM AST WED DEC 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 100 SW SHEMYA           60.10N 148.65W
12/04/2007  M75.00 MPH                          AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            ACTUAL DISTANCE 175 MILES FROM SHEMYA. LAT 50.85N LONG
            171.36E. SATELLITE MEASURED SCATTEROMETER WIND. VALUE
            TAKEN FROM AWIPS PLOT.

&&

DV