Small Craft Advisory 1019, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 061245 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST THU DEC 6 2007

CORRECTION TO ZONE 120

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF
TODAY. A 1012 MB LOW FORMS ON THE FRONT OVER THE KENNEDY ENTRANCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES NEAR SEWARD FRI MORNING. ANOTHER
WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ120-070300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST THU DEC 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SE WIND INCREASING 40 KT THIS
MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN. 
..EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND....SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-070300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST THU DEC 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...SE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN. ELSEWHERE...VARIABLE WINDS 15
KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-070300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST THU DEC 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-070300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST THU DEC 6 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
3 FT AND SUBSIDING. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-070300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST THU DEC 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E TO SE WIND TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-070300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST THU DEC 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-070300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST THU DEC 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING E TO NE 35 KT THIS MORNING THEN SW 20 KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E TO NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-070300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST THU DEC 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13  FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-070300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST THU DEC 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
419 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BERING IS THE
MOST DOMINANT FEATURE THIS MORNING. BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
LOW ENCOMPASSES ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEING UNDER WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...ARCTIC AIR IS
PERSISTING IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL...AS WELL AS
IN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. A STRONG FRONT IS HEADING OUT
WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING...AND IS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE
OBVIOUS OUTLIER THE UKMET. BEYOND THAT...MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WE ARE FAVORING THE ECMWF DUE TO ITS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED...BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS THIS
MORNING...THUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO END
ESPECIALLY FROM CORDOVA TO VALDEZ AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO ERODE
ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF TODAY AND WINDS
WHERE STILL BLOWING WILL DECREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISSIPATES
FURTHER. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR SOUTHCENTRAL IS THE FRONT WHICH
IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN BERING THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT SOMEWHERE AROUND THE KENNEDY ENTRANCE THURSDAY AND MOVING
TO SEWARD THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE
TERRIBLY STRONG WITH JUST GALES EXPECTED IN MARINE AREAS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY AND STANDS A BETTER
CHANCE TO BRING SNOW TO INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS ANCHORAGE...THAN WITH
THE LAST SYSTEM. THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS WILL
COME THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR KODIAK WHICH WILL RECEIVE MOST OF ITS
PRECIP...MAINLY AS RAIN...ON THURSDAY. COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK IN THE
ACTION ON FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH IT...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER MANY AREAS.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST BERING LOW
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS OVER MANY AREAS. THERE IS WARMER AIR MOVING
IN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA...WILL CHANGE TO RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A MAJOR LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING BRINGS
STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY RAIN...BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
A VERY STRONG...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENING...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST BERING CONTINUES TO BRING VERY STRONG WINDS IN ITS
VICINITY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO
NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ON THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...TWO LOW
PRESSURE AREAS MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE EAST OF THE TWO
LOWS NEAR UNALASKA ISLAND ABSORBS THE OTHER LOW AND STRENGTHENS
FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES NORTH INTO THE EASTERN BERING ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRESENT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. GOOD CONFIDENCE
AT LEAST IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING WITH NUMEROUS
STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 187 AND 191.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 172 175 176 413.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160
         165 170 179 180 185 351 352 411 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY DEC 07