Gale Warning 961, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
419 AM AST WED DEC 5 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BERING IS THE
MOST DOMINANT FEATURE THIS MORNING. BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
LOW ENCOMPASSES ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEING UNDER WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...ARCTIC AIR IS
PERSISTING IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL...AS WELL AS
IN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. A STRONG FRONT IS HEADING OUT
WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING...AND IS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE
OBVIOUS OUTLIER THE UKMET. BEYOND THAT...MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WE ARE FAVORING THE ECMWF DUE TO ITS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED...BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS THIS
MORNING...THUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO END
ESPECIALLY FROM CORDOVA TO VALDEZ AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO ERODE
ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF TODAY AND WINDS
WHERE STILL BLOWING WILL DECREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISSIPATES
FURTHER. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR SOUTHCENTRAL IS THE FRONT WHICH
IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN BERING THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT SOMEWHERE AROUND THE KENNEDY ENTRANCE THURSDAY AND MOVING
TO SEWARD THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE
TERRIBLY STRONG WITH JUST GALES EXPECTED IN MARINE AREAS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY AND STANDS A BETTER
CHANCE TO BRING SNOW TO INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS ANCHORAGE...THAN WITH
THE LAST SYSTEM. THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS WILL
COME THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR KODIAK WHICH WILL RECEIVE MOST OF ITS
PRECIP...MAINLY AS RAIN...ON THURSDAY. COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK IN THE
ACTION ON FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH IT...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER MANY AREAS.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST BERING LOW
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS OVER MANY AREAS. THERE IS WARMER AIR MOVING
IN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA...WILL CHANGE TO RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A MAJOR LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING BRINGS
STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY RAIN...BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
A VERY STRONG...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENING...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST BERING CONTINUES TO BRING VERY STRONG WINDS IN ITS
VICINITY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO
NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ON THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...TWO LOW
PRESSURE AREAS MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE EAST OF THE TWO
LOWS NEAR UNALASKA ISLAND ABSORBS THE OTHER LOW AND STRENGTHENS
FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES NORTH INTO THE EASTERN BERING ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRESENT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. GOOD CONFIDENCE
AT LEAST IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING WITH NUMEROUS
STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 187 AND 191.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 172 175 176 413.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160
         165 170 179 180 185 351 352 411 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY DEC 07