Storm Warning 172, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 271230
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST THU DEC 27 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 973 MB LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
THIS EVENING. A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 46N 178W INTENSIFIES TO 989 MB FRI
MORNING NEAR 53N 158W AND THEN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A 983
MB LOW 59N 178W WEAKENS TO 991 MB FRI NIGHT NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND.  

$$

PKZ411-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST THU DEC 27 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED DEC 26 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THOUGH THE GFS
IS STILL THE PREFERRED MODEL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE STORM CENTERED NEAR DUTCH HARBOR IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH A WELL DEFINED FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO BRISTOL BAY.
THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD COVERS MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND HAS MOVED
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.

A UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR AND IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIES
OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST WITH SECONDARY CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA, YUKON TERRITORY AND
NORTHERN ALASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOWS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE BERING SEA AND WILL EXTEND A TOUGH INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE GULF
AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND UNDER A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AND WILL MOVE A LITTLE WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
THE WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY MORNING. GALE TO POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AREAS OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE LARGE INTENSE STORM NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR DILLINGHAM THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS OVER STORM FORCE
EAST WINDS OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DIMINISH AS THE CENTER ENTERS THE
BAY THURSDAY MORNING.

STORM FORCE WEST WINDS IN THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD CREATE STORM SURGE 6 FEET
ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMIC TIDE LEVELS.

OTHERWISE SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
THE LARGE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
LOW. POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA BEGINNING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA DRIFTS SOUTH AND EXTENDS A TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP BUILD AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SATURDAY THEN WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN ALASKA.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL MIRROR THE EVENTS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE.
THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEN WILL WEAKEN AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY AND THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN
SATURDAY AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR BRISTOL BAY.
MARINE...STORM 120, 130, 138, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170
         GALE 138, 140, 175, 176, 179, 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 07