Storm Warning 171, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 270000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AST WED DEC 26 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-271500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 965 MB LOW NEAR 55N 167W WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 59N 159W THU
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. A 981 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 59N
177W WED NIGHT WILL MOVE TO NEAR 58N 173W THU AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
NEAR 63N 172W FRI AFTERNOON AT THE SAME INTENSITY.

$$

PKZ411-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
300 PM AST WED DEC 26 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
300 PM AST WED DEC 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
300 PM AST WED DEC 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
300 PM AST WED DEC 26 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THEN THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERSE WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW MOVING
INTO BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH ALL THE MODELS MOVE THE LOW
IN TO THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT, THE NAM MODEL KEEPS THE CENTER A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST OVER KODIAK ISLAND WHILE THE GFS, UKMET AND ECMWF
HAS IT OVER THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL GULF. THOUGH IT IS HARD TO SAY
WHICH HAS THE BETTER SOLUTION, I LIKE THE GFS BECAUSE IT HAS BETTER
CONSISTENCY THAN THE OTHER MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF MOVE EAST. A
WEAKER LOW HAS FORMER NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND AND IS KEEPING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE COOK
INLET AND KENAI PENINSULA IS COLLIDING WITH THE WARMER FROM PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND IS CREATING AN AREA OF SNOW ALONG THE RAILBELT.

A SMALL LOW OVER THE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE SOME SNOW
ONTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AND WILL MOVE STRONG WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER OVER KODIAK CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD COOK INLET. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA IS
STILL HOLDING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COOK INLET
AND SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT THEN WEAK OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE NORTH AND EAST INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN ALASKA THURSDAY.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
THE PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AREA UNTIL THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARER AND COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. MORE CLOUD WILL MORE UP FROM
THE SOUTH AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY.
SNOW, RAIN AND SOME STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST EARLY THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
A RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE TANANA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL SWING THE REMAINS OF ITS
COLD FRONT TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST BEFORE BOTH DISSIPATES LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH DUTCH HARBOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL BAY THU MORNING THEN
WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND THU AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING WITH SPREAD INTO THE AK PEN AND BRISTOL BAY
WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE AK PEN IS LOOKING DOUBTFUL AT THIS TIME
BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A LOT OF WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE SNOW BEGINNING THIS EVENING
WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW NEAR KODIAK THURSDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST OF THE STRONGER
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THU NIGHT THEN DRIFT TO NEAR
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND SAT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
MARINE...GALE 120, 129, 130, 132, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170, 172, 175,
179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 07