Small Craft Advisory 994, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST MON NOV 26 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND UKMET MODELS
TAKE THE STRONG ALEUTIAN LOW NORTH OF THE CHAIN WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. CURRENTLY PREFER THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION BECAUSE THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LOW OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS WEAKENED AND THE SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT
MOVES INTO THE GULF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. MORE RAIN
WILL MOVE BACK INTO KODIAK ISLAND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
AND WILL MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A MODERATE LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO 80 MILES
NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AKPEN TONIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST AND BRISTOL BAY LATE TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTH WIND
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE WARMER AIR AND GALE TO STORM
FORCE WINDS INTO THE COASTAL SECTION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST
COAST WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AGAIN.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE MODERATE LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING
LOW 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 954 MB 180 MILES SOUTH OF AMCHITKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND TO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CENTRAL
ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY AND
WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM MOIST AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL KEEP WESTERN ALASKA, ESPECIALLY THE
COASTAL REGIONS, RAINY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
STRONG SURFACE WINDS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO PERSIST
OVER THE AREA.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND SEE GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DUE TO RADIATIVE COOLING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 172
      ...GALE 130, 132, 150, 155, 160, 170, 175, 176, 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 07