Gale Warning 900, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 281310
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-290300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A 949 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL WEAKEN TO 967 MB
300 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA THURSDAY NIGHT. A 970 MB LOW WILL FORM 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN TO 958 MB
250 NM NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-290300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-290300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. STRONGER WINDS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 45 KT. STRONGER WINDS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-290300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-290300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ172-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-290300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-290300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST WED NOV 28 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WHERE TOO FAR WEST AND
ABOUT 5 MB TOO HIGH ON STRONG SURFACE CENTER SOUTH OF THE AK PEN THIS
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHORT RANGE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE AND LIKELY ON THIS AFTERNOONS. GFS/EC MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HRS. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD...HOWEVER THE STRONG WEST-EAST PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/EAST BERING SEA WED
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS WITH SOME
MODIFICATION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AS STATED ABOVE...MODEL PRESSURES AND POSITION OF LOW CENTER SOUTH OF
THE AK PEN THIS MORNING WERE OFF. CENTER ON THIS AFTERNOON SAT PIC
SHOWS CENTER ALREADY NORTH OF THE AK PEN. THIS CENTER WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE CENTER AS OLD PARENT CENTER NEAR UNALASKA WEAKENS. SAT PIC
SHOWS OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS BRISTOL BAY TO MINOR WAVES OVER
AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO
NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AS WEAK TRIPLE POINT
SAPS ENERGY AS IT MOVES TO OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WED.

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM IS UNDER FAVORABLE JET POSITION AND
HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SO IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MODELS
DROP CENTER TO THE UPPER 940S OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS THEN WEAKEN
IT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. NORTH PACIFIC
JET POSITION AND SHARPENING OF UPPER TROUGH INDICATES THAT
SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY CENTERS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BAND
AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD INTENSIFY THE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/EAST BERING
SEA WED THROUGH THU.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...WIND IS THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT THROUGH TONIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW MOVED CROSSED
THE AK PEN. GAP WINDS IN SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS WITH GALES LIKELY OVER THE GULF AND COASTAL MARINE AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS WILL DIMINISH MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND WEAKENS. MORE SIGNIFICANT
TRIPLE POINT FORMING SOUTH OF THE GULF SHOULD ROB MOST OF MOISTURE...
SO NOT LOOKING FOR ABNORMALLY HIGH RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL OVER
THE GULF COAST.

.WEST...STRONG WINDS OVER SW ALASKA...ESPECIALLY ALONG BRISTOL BAY
AND ALEUTIAN RANGE SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW CENTER WEAKENS AND
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SPREAD TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN. EXPECT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY/GAP WINDS TO SPREAD TO THE AK
PEN/EASTERN BERING/PORTION OF SW AK WED. EXPECT STRONG WINDS
CONDITIONS TO HOLD OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THU AS WAVES MOVE NORTH
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD WEST OVER THE MAINLAND LATER THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 170 172 175 176 AND 179.
         GALES 120 130 138 155 160 165 180 171 AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07