Storm Warning 148, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 280049
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL WEAKEN TO 988 MB 500
NM NORTH OF ATKA TUESDAY EVENING AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
953 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 946 MB 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEAKEN TO 960 MB 122 NM
NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-281500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. STRONGER WINDS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-281500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. STRONGER WINDS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. STRONGER WINDS TO 65 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. STRONGER WINDS TO 70 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-281500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 65 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-281500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-281500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-281500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE NOV 27 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING
GIVING THE AREA A BRIEF BREAK. NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED 971 MB LOW
NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. A 980 MB TRIPLE POINT LOW IS RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTH
TOWARD THE AKPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWS OUT WEST AND
THE 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS STRONGEST
WEST OF KODIAK ISLAND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF LARGE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN MEMBERS AND
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT EXCELLENT. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
BASED ON THE 00Z GFS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OUT WEST
REGARDING THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA LATER IN THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF...
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE CHILLIEST
START TO A DAY SINCE THE 20TH. NOTICING TEMPERATURES ON THE MESONET
DEPICTING A VERY STRONG INVERSION WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS REPORTING
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHILE THE VALLEYS ARE IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING WITH RAIN ALREADY REPORTED
ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER ANCHORAGE WITH RAIN AND SNOW RETURNING TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING. GAP
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
ONLY EXPECTING A FEW FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES IN ANCHORAGE AND THE
MATSU VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DIES A QUICK DEATH IN THE NORTHERN
GULF. ONE MORE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING FRONT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THINKING THE COLD DENSE AIR WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK AS
A VERY STRONG SYSTEM AFFECTS KODIAK AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND WARMER AIR BACK INTO ANCHORAGE. BEST GUESS
AT THIS TIME IS THE RIDGE WILL HOLD THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND ALSO
ALLOW SOME VERY COLD AIR TO BUILD IN WESTERN CANADA. EXTENDED MODELS
HAVE THIS EXTREME COLD SPILLING INTO OUR DOMAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
STRONG SYSTEM TODAY AFFECTING SOUTHWEST ALASKA INCLUDING BRISTOL BAY.
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES HAVE INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE INTERIOR WILL BE DOWNSLOPED
AND REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. 12Z SOUNDING AT MCGRATH INDICATIVE OF A
FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO WITH ENTIRE SOUNDING BELOW FREEZING AND DRY
AIR ABOVE A VERY MOIST COLUMN NEAR THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN
SUPERCOOLED DROPS. NOT EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO LAST LONG AS
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

CONCERN FOR LATER THIS WEEK WITH A VERY STRONG SYSTEM SHAPING UP
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL OBTAIN ITS ENERGY
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON MITAG. THIS IS STILL FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATER THIS WEEK.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL SERVE AS THE
ANCHOR FOR SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING. GALE AND STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL REMAIN PEPPERED THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS AS
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY CHANGE DURING THE WEEK. STRENGTH AND EXACT
LOCATION OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAINS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 150 175 176.
       GALE WARNING 130 132 138 155 160 165 170 171 172 176 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB NOV 07