Small Craft Advisory 967, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
350 PM AST SAT NOV 17 2007

...UPDATED FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE...

RATHER STRONG GULF LOW AND ASSOCIATED GALES FORECAST BY GFS, WHICH IS THE
MODEL OF CHOICE, TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NNW TO THE SOUTH END OF MONTAGUE
ISLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROF ALONG WRN AK RNG AND...MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF LOW
TO GIVE PERIODS OF SNOW NORTHERN COOK INLET/TURNAGAIN ARM AT LEAST THROUGH
MID DAY SUNDAY. GREATEST THREAT OF SNOW IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY APPEARS TO
BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE PARKS HWY. NORTH WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 50 MPH AT
SEWARD THIS MORNING WHILE WHITTIER WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25G45 MPH. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL TREND DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND SHOULD DROP OFF
DRAMATICALLY SAT NIGHT.

ALASKA PENINSULA WINDS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES TO 158W SATURDAY EVENING. KODIAK ISLAND
STAYS BREEZY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A RISK OF A SNOW SHOWER OR 2 NORTHEAST
PORTION.

GOES WEST IR SHOWS NEXT BERING FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIVING EASTWARD AND
SPLITTING WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STAYING ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
GREATER DUTCH HARBOR AREA AND ALASKA PENINSULA. LIGHT SNOW MAKES IT TO
NUNIVAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS..AT THIS TIME..THAT ONLY FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE YK DELTAS ON SUN WITH
TOGIAK BAY THE CUTOFF POINT FOR BRISTOL BAY. GOOD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM WESTERN ALEUTIANS NORTH TO THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS
WILL DRIVE ANOTHER PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BERING AND PRIBILOFS FOR SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS SHOULD BE UP ENOUGH
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...SOUTHEAST GALES COME BACK TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
MONDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW ON THE KENAI PEN GIVES PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS IS USUALLY A DRY
PATTERN FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH POSSIBLE UPSLOPE MOISTURE ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR HOLDS ACROSS NORTHERN
BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY. INTENSE STORM CENTERED 50N
155W MONDAY EVENING TO SPREAD A HEAVY RAIN AND WIND CONDITION TO KODIAK
AND THE WEST SIDE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. RIGHT NOW THAT LOW IS FCST TO
MOVE TO KODIAK TUE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF MODEL
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THE STORM WILL MAKE ITS TURN TO THE NORTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE AREAS 120 121 130 132 150 176 185 351 411 412 413.

DPERCY NOV 07