Small Craft Advisory 966, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
750 PM AST FRI NOV 16 2007

UPDATE...967 MB LOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
EVENING. A FEW VIGOROUS SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE STACKED LOW
ARE ENHANCING THE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. UPDATED CWF TO INCLUDE
STORM WINDS FOR MARINE ZONE 120 AND GALES IN PASSAGE CANAL AND
RESURRECTION BAY. LIGHTNING DATA NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE BUT SUSPECT
THAT CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING.
OVERALL...WINDS 15 KT OR SO STRONGER THAN MODELS INDICATING OVER MOST
OF OUR DOMAIN...EAST AND WEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOW AS IT HAS REACHED MATURITY AND BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

AB

...PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.MODEL DISCUSSION...BOTH NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GULF OF
ALASKA LOW.  GFS STARTS A LITTLE DEEPER WHICH VERIFIES WITH BUOYS.
BOTH MODELS MOVE THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO PWS SATURDAY EVENING. AT
500 MB GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE NW ON SUNDAY..
THIS FEATURE EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF AK.  THE NAM HAS A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND SW AK WITH A WEAKER TROUGH TO
THE NORTH- TEND TO AGREE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION.

IN THE BERING SEA REGION HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING
A ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA...PLENTY OF NORTHWEST WIND OVER THE AK PEN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF THE SW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  SNOW SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO
STRATIFORM SNOW OR RAIN ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.

SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE WINDS IN COASTAL AREAS DIMINISHING
ON SATURDAY. AREAS OF SNOW ON SUNDAY AS 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOUTHCENTRAL...CONTINUED NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS LOW CENTER TRACKS TOWARD PWS.  EXPECTING SOME SNOW OVER A
SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING.  TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...COOLER IN AREAS WITH THIN CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS INDICATING A RESIDUAL WEAK LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF AK SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG
155W AND MOVE INTO THE SW GULF OF AK MONDAY EVENING.  GFS TRACKS THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO PWS TUESDAY NIGHT.  CENTRAL PRESSURE BOTTOMS
OUT BETWEEN 960 AND 965 MB AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF AK LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FILLING THEREAFTER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALES 121 129 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 180
          AND 185
         HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP NOV 07