Gale Warning 804, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 181258
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST SUN NOV 18 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-190300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE AK PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTHWEST COAST SUN AFTERNOON. A 995 MB LOW NEAR 61N 180W WILL
MOVE TO NEAR 60N 166W SUNDAY EVENING AND WEAKEN TO 1003 MB. A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUN NIGHT WITH A 987 MB LOW
MOVING TO NEAR 54N 175E MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-190300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST SUN NOV 18 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-190300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST SUN NOV 18 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-190300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST SUN NOV 18 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-190300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 190052
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST SUN NOV 18 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-191500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 58N 177W WILL MOVE TO 52N 170W MON MORNING.
A 998 MB LOW NEAR 60N 147W WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 971 MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO 53N 156W
TUE MORNING. A 989 MB LOW WILL FORM AND MOVE TO 51N 174E MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AST SUN NOV 18 2007

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AST SUN NOV 18 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AST SUN NOV 18 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
350 PM AST SAT NOV 17 2007

...UPDATED FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE...

RATHER STRONG GULF LOW AND ASSOCIATED GALES FORECAST BY GFS, WHICH IS THE
MODEL OF CHOICE, TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NNW TO THE SOUTH END OF MONTAGUE
ISLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROF ALONG WRN AK RNG AND...MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF LOW
TO GIVE PERIODS OF SNOW NORTHERN COOK INLET/TURNAGAIN ARM AT LEAST THROUGH
MID DAY SUNDAY. GREATEST THREAT OF SNOW IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY APPEARS TO
BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE PARKS HWY. NORTH WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 50 MPH AT
SEWARD THIS MORNING WHILE WHITTIER WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25G45 MPH. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL TREND DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND SHOULD DROP OFF
DRAMATICALLY SAT NIGHT.

ALASKA PENINSULA WINDS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES TO 158W SATURDAY EVENING. KODIAK ISLAND
STAYS BREEZY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A RISK OF A SNOW SHOWER OR 2 NORTHEAST
PORTION.

GOES WEST IR SHOWS NEXT BERING FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIVING EASTWARD AND
SPLITTING WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STAYING ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
GREATER DUTCH HARBOR AREA AND ALASKA PENINSULA. LIGHT SNOW MAKES IT TO
NUNIVAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS..AT THIS TIME..THAT ONLY FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE YK DELTAS ON SUN WITH
TOGIAK BAY THE CUTOFF POINT FOR BRISTOL BAY. GOOD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM WESTERN ALEUTIANS NORTH TO THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS
WILL DRIVE ANOTHER PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BERING AND PRIBILOFS FOR SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS SHOULD BE UP ENOUGH
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...SOUTHEAST GALES COME BACK TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
MONDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW ON THE KENAI PEN GIVES PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS IS USUALLY A DRY
PATTERN FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH POSSIBLE UPSLOPE MOISTURE ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR HOLDS ACROSS NORTHERN
BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY. INTENSE STORM CENTERED 50N
155W MONDAY EVENING TO SPREAD A HEAVY RAIN AND WIND CONDITION TO KODIAK
AND THE WEST SIDE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. RIGHT NOW THAT LOW IS FCST TO
MOVE TO KODIAK TUE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF MODEL
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THE STORM WILL MAKE ITS TURN TO THE NORTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE AREAS 120 121 130 132 150 176 185 351 411 412 413.

DPERCY NOV 07