Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 031243
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR CORDOVA WILL MOVE INLAND OVER VALDEZ WED AFTERNOON.
A 977 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF AKHIOK THU MORNING AND
MOVE TO 130 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THU NIGHT AT 972 MB. A 977 MB
LOW 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 185 NM SOUTHEAST OF
AKHIOK THU NIGHT AT 983 MB.
$$

PKZ120-040300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E OF CAPE CLEARE...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT BY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
CAPE CLEARE W...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-040300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-040300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-040300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-040300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-040300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-040300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-040300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
KALGIN ISLAND N...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-040300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS WITH GULF COMPLEX REASONABLE. NAM TENDS TO
HANDLE DETAILS BETTER AT THE ONSET. TREND WITH LOW CENTER MOVING INTO GULF
TONIGHT IS SIMILAR ON BOTH. OUTWEST...GFS/NAM REASONABLE SOLUTIONS WITH
NEXT STORM TO HIT THE ALEUTIANS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS. THIS
IS PROBABLY A GOOD TREND SINCE NORTH PACIFIC JET STRENGTHENS.

.UPPER AIR...300MB TROUGH IS INTENSIFYING SOME AS HTS HAVE DROPPED OVER THE
LAST 24 HR OVER SW AK. TREND IS FOR WESTERN MAINLAND TROUGH TO DIG SE TO
OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED THEN ROTATE N OVER THE MAINLAND AND CANADA LATE
WED/THU. COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
LATE THIS WEAK. THIS WILL TEND TO SETUP A NEAR ZONAL FLOW UP ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND PUSH STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH.

.SURFACE

.EAST...970S CENTER SE OF KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED. MODELS STILL DIFFER A
LITTLE ON TIMING. SETUP( NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH AND ONSET OF SE OVERRUNNING
IN LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS) LOOKS GOOD FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE KENAI
PEN...ANCHORAGE BOWL/MATSU VALLEYS. NAM MAY BE A LITTLE QUICK ON MOVING
MOISTURE OUT ON WED. SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ONSET OF HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM...TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER AND COLDER TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND.

.WEST...
DEVELOPING CENTER MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN FAVORABLE POSITION
UNDER UPPER JET. CENTER LIKELY TO BE STORM FORCE AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
ZONE 191(CENTRAL/WEST ALEUTIANS) TONIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT. WARM ADVECTION
EAST OF 180 SHOULD SHUT OFF MUCH OF BLOWING SNOW AND PUSH BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL TO WEST ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
TRACK EAST ON BACKSIDE OF CENTER ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT. TRIPLE
POINT ON ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN AND IS
CARRIED RAPIDLY EAST UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. WOULD THEN EXPECT FRONT TO
ELONGATE E-SE AND BRUNT OF REMAINING PRECIP TO BE CARRIED SOUTH OF AK PEN
WED NIGHT/THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 191
MARINE...GALE 120, 130, 150, 155, 170, 176
         STORM 172, 175
RMC JAN 07