Small Craft Advisory 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
430 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...MODEL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LEANING
MORE TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION ON THE DETAILS OF THE LOW IN THE
GULF. ALL MODELS PLACE THE LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY MID
MORNING BUT EXACT PLACEMENT IS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
EAST OF HINCHINBROOK WHICH WILL KEEP THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT OUT WEST
WITH GFS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE NAM ON A QUICKER EASTWARD TRACK.

STRONG CAA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTO SOUTHWESTERN AK. THIS WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH WED. COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL TEND TO SETUP A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW UP ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND PUSH STORM TRACK FARTHER
SOUTH.

IN THE EAST..BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE KENAI
PENINSULA..ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL
ANTICIPATING ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS AS UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST.
THIS IS BRINGING RATIOS DOWN TO 10 TO 1. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. THIS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE EVENING SHUTTING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

IN THE WEST..STORM FORCE LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD BUT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW TO A MINIMUM. HOWEVER BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH COLD NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. TRIPLE
POINT ON ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN AND
IS CARRIED RAPIDLY EAST UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. WOULD THEN EXPECT
FRONT TO ELONGATE E-SE AND BRUNT OF REMAINING PRECIP TO BE CARRIED
SOUTH OF AK PEN WED NIGHT/THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 191
         BLIZZARD WATCH 187
MARINE...STORM 172 175
         GALE 120 121 130 132 150 155 170 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 160
                              165 179 185

RNW JAN 07