Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 21, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 031303 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

CORRECTED ZONE 160

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 977 MB LOW 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 185 NM SOUTHEAST
OF AKHIOK THU NIGHT AT 983 MB. A 976 MB LOW 220 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA WILL MOVE NEAR AMCHITKA ISLAND THU MORNING AT 994 MB AND
DISSIPATE. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THU AND THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...BECOMING SW 35 KT WEST OF COLD BAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-040300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-040300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-040300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 29 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-040300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
31 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT NORTH OF THE RAT ISLANDS AND
SW 50 KT SOUTH OF THE RAT ISLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
27 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-040300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-040300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS WITH GULF COMPLEX REASONABLE. NAM TENDS TO
HANDLE DETAILS BETTER AT THE ONSET. TREND WITH LOW CENTER MOVING INTO GULF
TONIGHT IS SIMILAR ON BOTH. OUTWEST...GFS/NAM REASONABLE SOLUTIONS WITH
NEXT STORM TO HIT THE ALEUTIANS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS. THIS
IS PROBABLY A GOOD TREND SINCE NORTH PACIFIC JET STRENGTHENS.

.UPPER AIR...300MB TROUGH IS INTENSIFYING SOME AS HTS HAVE DROPPED OVER THE
LAST 24 HR OVER SW AK. TREND IS FOR WESTERN MAINLAND TROUGH TO DIG SE TO
OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED THEN ROTATE N OVER THE MAINLAND AND CANADA LATE
WED/THU. COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
LATE THIS WEAK. THIS WILL TEND TO SETUP A NEAR ZONAL FLOW UP ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND PUSH STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH.

.SURFACE

.EAST...970S CENTER SE OF KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED. MODELS STILL DIFFER A
LITTLE ON TIMING. SETUP( NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH AND ONSET OF SE OVERRUNNING
IN LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS) LOOKS GOOD FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE KENAI
PEN...ANCHORAGE BOWL/MATSU VALLEYS. NAM MAY BE A LITTLE QUICK ON MOVING
MOISTURE OUT ON WED. SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ONSET OF HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM...TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER AND COLDER TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND.

.WEST...
DEVELOPING CENTER MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN FAVORABLE POSITION
UNDER UPPER JET. CENTER LIKELY TO BE STORM FORCE AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
ZONE 191(CENTRAL/WEST ALEUTIANS) TONIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT. WARM ADVECTION
EAST OF 180 SHOULD SHUT OFF MUCH OF BLOWING SNOW AND PUSH BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL TO WEST ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
TRACK EAST ON BACKSIDE OF CENTER ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT. TRIPLE
POINT ON ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN AND IS
CARRIED RAPIDLY EAST UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. WOULD THEN EXPECT FRONT TO
ELONGATE E-SE AND BRUNT OF REMAINING PRECIP TO BE CARRIED SOUTH OF AK PEN
WED NIGHT/THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 191
MARINE...GALE 120, 130, 150, 155, 170, 176
         STORM 172, 175
RMC JAN 07