Small Craft Advisory 76, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 200048
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 981 MB LOW 375 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 970 MB SAT NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN
MOVE ON SHORE NEAR YAKUTAT AT 985 MB SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN BERING THIS MORNING. A RIDGE LIES OVER THE WESTERN
BERING. A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...AND A WAVE
IS DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS
OVER NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH ANOTHER OVER THE PRIBILOFS.

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN MODEL
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LOW DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INLAND
TODAY. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE GULF MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLE SAT MORNING. THE BERING LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT DRIFTS
TOWARD BRISTOL BAY AND THE AKPEN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SUN INTO MON
ANOTHER LOW HEADS AROUND THE BERING TROUGH TOWARD THE NORTH GULF
COAST.

FOR THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...COLD ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL AREAS WEST OF THE BERING
LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE BERING EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AKPEN.

FOR SW AK...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...THE LOW OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF NORTH
GULF COAST MOUNTAINS. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING...HEAVIER SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
VALDEZ...WITH SOME CROSSING THE CHUGACH INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
THIS FLOW WILL ALSO FAVOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY...AK RANGE..AND
TALKEETNAS. ALTHOUGH A 700 MB RIDGE WILL CROSS THE KENAI AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL LATER THIS MORNING...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC
AND GENERALLY SOUTHWEST. THIS MEANS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...WILL RESUME LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH A REDUCTION IN SNOW ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS JAN 07