Gale Warning 106, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 200059
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-201500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
DRIFT TO 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE NEWENHAM SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ150-201500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-201500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-201500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 


$$

PKZ165-201500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-201500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT.  SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-201500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-201500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-201500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-201500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-201500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-201500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-201500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST FRI JAN 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN BERING THIS MORNING. A RIDGE LIES OVER THE WESTERN
BERING. A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...AND A WAVE
IS DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS
OVER NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH ANOTHER OVER THE PRIBILOFS.

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN MODEL
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LOW DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INLAND
TODAY. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE GULF MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLE SAT MORNING. THE BERING LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT DRIFTS
TOWARD BRISTOL BAY AND THE AKPEN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND SUN INTO MON
ANOTHER LOW HEADS AROUND THE BERING TROUGH TOWARD THE NORTH GULF
COAST.

FOR THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...COLD ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL AREAS WEST OF THE BERING
LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE BERING EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AKPEN.

FOR SW AK...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...THE LOW OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF NORTH
GULF COAST MOUNTAINS. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING...HEAVIER SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
VALDEZ...WITH SOME CROSSING THE CHUGACH INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
THIS FLOW WILL ALSO FAVOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY...AK RANGE..AND
TALKEETNAS. ALTHOUGH A 700 MB RIDGE WILL CROSS THE KENAI AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL LATER THIS MORNING...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC
AND GENERALLY SOUTHWEST. THIS MEANS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...WILL RESUME LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH A REDUCTION IN SNOW ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS JAN 07