Small Craft Advisory 327, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT APR 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE AK-PEN WITH MULTIPLE
WEAKER LOWS ROTATING AROUND IT. GULF LOW MOVED ONSHORE NEAR KAMISHAK
BAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ITS OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE STRONG GAP WINDS OVER
THE MAINLAND. THE WARNING LEVEL WINDS THROUGH EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM
HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA A COUPLE HOURS EARLY...THUS THE
CANCELLATION OF THE WARNING FOR ZONE 125. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
101 WILL REMAIN AS WEST TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS ARE STILL QUITE STRONG.
HEAVY PRECIP THAT HAS BEEN FALLING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS
BEGINNING TO LIGHTEN UP AND TURN INTO SHOWERS. HEAVIER PRECIP IS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.

MODEL AGREEMENT WAS VERY GOOD IN THE SHORT TERM THEN DECREASED A BIT
IN THE LONG RANGE. USED THE LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SINCE THE RUN
TRENDED MORE WITH THE ENSEMBLES THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN.

EAST...WINDS AND PRECIP WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A
NEW NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD KODIAK AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TO KODIAK BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND TO SOUTHCENTRAL
AREA TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL
OCCUR AGAIN ON THE EAST EXPOSURES OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
KENAI PENINSULA. GAP AND TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES FROM THE GULF AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT BE AS STRONG AS LAST
NIGHTS SYSTEM.

WEST...AS THE PRESENT LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AREA MOVES WEST...EXPECT
EASTERLY GAP WINDS TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. PRECIP WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY AS RAIN TODAY WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY AIR MAKING ITS
WAY OVER THE MAINLAND. THE CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT A BIT TODAY AS
OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES STRONG AGAIN. MORE PRECIP WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TOMORROW AS THE SECOND LOW APPROACHES KODIAK
THEN CROSSES THE AK-PEN SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 140 141
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR APR 07