Small Craft Advisory 325, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM ADT FRI APR 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...NOT MAJOR CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH MON.
GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SLOW DOWN OF NEXT STORM MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC TUE NIGHT/THU. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THIS
TIME-FRAME WILL KEEP CHANGES TO A MINIMUM.

.SYNOPSIS...
.EAST...960S LOW CENTER MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
THIS EVENING IS BEST HANDLED BY THE GFS/UKMET. CURRENT TRACK SHOULD
TAKE CENTER THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND TO SW ALASKA
SAT MORNING. STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF CENTER/FRONT WILL BRING STORM
FORCE WINDS TO MARINE 120 BY EVENING WITH GALES IN SURROUNDING
COASTAL MARINES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
STRONG CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
SAT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME SAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN FORM OF RAIN LOWER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL WITH FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 2000 FT. PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM
LIKELY EAST EXPOSURES THIS EVENING SWITCHING TO NORTHERN GULF
COAST/SOUTH EXPOSURES TONIGHT. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW CENTER MOVING
RAPIDLY UNDER NORTH PACIFIC JET LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND
AND RAIN TO THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA SAT NIGHT/SUN. THIS
CENTER MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IN THE 960S SUN AFTERNOON.

.WEST...STORM CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE INTO SW ALASKA EARLY SAT THEN OFFSHORE EAST OF SAINT PAUL
SAT NIGHT. MORNING SOUNDING OVER SW ALASKA SHOWED FREEZING LEVELS
ABOVE 2000 FT WITH MAX OF 4300 AT PAMC. EXPECT WARM ADVECTION WITH
CENTER SAT SO WOULD LEAN TOWARD MAINLY RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
A MIX UP IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. MODELS DO SHOW SOME COLD AIR
ENTRAINMENT OVER THE WESTERN DELTA...SO COULD SEE SNOW OR MIX THERE.
STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON BACKSIDE OF CENTER SAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG
GAP WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES. SOME DRYING OVER THE SW
MAINLAND SAT NIGHT WITH ONSET OF GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT SOME
MOISTURE OVER BRISTOL BAY WITH NEXT CENTER SUN...BUT DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
KEEP THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ON THE DRY SIDE.

WEAKENING LOW NEAR THE AK PEN HOLDS RAIN OR MIX OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SAT WITH NOT VERY STRONG WINDS. ALEUTIANS GENERALLY CLOUDY
WITH AREAS OF SNOW (MIX IN EAST)...STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WEST

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ZONE 101 AND 125.
MARINE...STORM..120. GALES..121 125 130 132 138 AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC APR 07