Small Craft Advisory 288, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SUN MAR 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...ALL FOUR MAJOR MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. NAM AND GFS HAVE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCE IN THE LOWS BUT OVERALL PATTERN IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER. THE BIGGER STORY IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THAT WILL DROP
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE HEAD FOR THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA TUESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF WHILE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS RIDGE BEARS WATCHING AS THE LATEST MID RANGE
GFS RUN HAS IT PERSISTING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THOUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE...A 992 MB LOW SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE ON SHORE IN
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL SPLIT INTO TWO PARTS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE ORIGINAL LOW DISSIPATING IN THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE A LEE SIDE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALSO BRING
SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY OUT OF THE ANCHORAGE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BECOME A CUT OFF LOW AND PULL SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.
THIS SITUATION USUALLY KEEPS THE SNOW OUT OF ANCHORAGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 175.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 07