Small Craft Advisory 286, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT MAR 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGHER RESOLUTION WORKS WILL IN
FIRST 36 HOURS. GFS PREFERRED BEYOND.

UPPER LEVELS...
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ALOFT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND HOLDS FIRMLY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN BECOMES DISORGANIZED OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR TOWARD MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ANCHORAGE BOWL...MATANUSKA
VALLEY...KENAI PENINSULA...PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND THE EASTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO OCCUR IN NEXT 48 HOURS. LARGE UPPER LEVEL
ANCHOR LOW OVER RUSSIAN FAR EAST WILL MIGRATE TO OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...
A 995 MB LOW NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY OCCLUDE AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR KODIAK CITY
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN STRENGTHEN TO 998 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR SEWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY FOR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...KENAI PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE BOWL...AND MATANUSKA VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO CREATE WIDESPREAD
CAA SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING...ALASKA
PENINSULA...AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN EAST OF 180.
989 MB LOW PROGGED TO BE NEAR PETROPAVLOVSK MON AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 138 160 165 170 172 175 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 121 130 138 150 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB MAR 07