Brisk Wind Advisory 29, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 252312
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 25 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 90 NM NORTH OF KODIAK CITY MON MORNING AND
MOVE TO 175 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA AT 998 MB MON NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ120-261400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 25 2007

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...WEST WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-261400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 25 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-261400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS E FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-261400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 25 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-261400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-261400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.

.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-261400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 25 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-261400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 

$$

PKZ141-261400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 25 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO E 15 KT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT MAR 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGHER RESOLUTION WORKS WILL IN
FIRST 36 HOURS. GFS PREFERRED BEYOND.

UPPER LEVELS...
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ALOFT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND HOLDS FIRMLY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN BECOMES DISORGANIZED OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR TOWARD MORNING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ANCHORAGE BOWL...MATANUSKA
VALLEY...KENAI PENINSULA...PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND THE EASTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO OCCUR IN NEXT 48 HOURS. LARGE UPPER LEVEL
ANCHOR LOW OVER RUSSIAN FAR EAST WILL MIGRATE TO OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...
A 995 MB LOW NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY OCCLUDE AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR KODIAK CITY
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN STRENGTHEN TO 998 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR SEWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY FOR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...KENAI PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE BOWL...AND MATANUSKA VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO CREATE WIDESPREAD
CAA SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING...ALASKA
PENINSULA...AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN EAST OF 180.
989 MB LOW PROGGED TO BE NEAR PETROPAVLOVSK MON AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 138 160 165 170 172 175 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 121 130 138 150 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB MAR 07