Small Craft Advisory 200, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SUN FEB 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE FIELD AS WELL AS
SURFACE FIELDS.

OVERALL...TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE EXTENDING THROUGH
EASTERN ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING/WESTERN
ALASKA. IN ADDITION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN BERING.

EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING IS
PUSHED EAST SLIGHTLY OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
LITTLE WARMER AIR TO THE INTERIOR. THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLIGHT TO MOST LOCATIONS. THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE PULLS THE LOW
CURRENTLY IN THE BEAUFORT SEA TO THE PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
WEEK. WITH THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND A SURGE OF
COLD AIR ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WARNING LEVEL OR NEAR
WARNING LEVEL WINDS AGAIN. THE WARNING LEVEL WINDS TODAY WILL LIKELY
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WEAKENS. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG WINDS OVER
THOMPSON PASS AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA...BUT LIKELY TO SEE A
DECREASE LATER TODAY. THE FRONT THAT WORKS ACROSS THE BERING EARLY
THIS WEEK TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY.
OTHER THAT THAT...THE AREA EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES STILL TO
FALL TO NEAR LAST NIGHTS LEVELS.

WEST OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO SWING NORTH BUT SLOWS AS IT HITS THE
RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE RIDGE MOVING TO THE COAST WILL RISE
TEMPERATURES SOME TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THE FRONT
PROCEEDS TO KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RIDES TO THE
COAST. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG NEAR THE FRONT ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BREAK UP AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
BERING SHEAR THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. IN THE
MEANTIME...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN ALASKA AT
THE HEAD OF THE RIDGE WITH A JET OVERHEAD. THESE WINDS TO DILUTE
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY. THE
PARENT LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF SIBERIA TOWARD
KAMCHATKA. THIS WILL ACT TO PUSH THE LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SLIGHTLY INTO THE BERING THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
TO STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN STRONG
INTO THURSDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT HANGS UP
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE WORKING SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN ACTS TO STRETCH THE FRONT. THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY SHEARS
APART SATURDAY AS THE PARENT LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LIFTS
NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP IN THE BERING WITH A TROUGH SWINGING
TOWARD KAMCHATKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM...175
         GALE...120 121 129 130 132 170 172 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...120 121 125 129 130 138 140 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 07