Small Craft Advisory 199, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SAT FEB 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP ARCTIC UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF ALASKA CONTINUES
TO PLUNGE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA
WITH AN UNDERCUTTING LOW. POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS COMBINE JUST
EAST OF THAT LOW AND DRIVES INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
STRONG WINDS THROUGH PREFERRED GAPS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER KODIAK ISLAND MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF. WINDS SHOULD EAST UP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST SIBERIA MOVES INTO THE STATE.
EXPECTING SOME SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND DRY SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE BERING BLOCK WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ALLOW
THE UNDERCUTTING LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH...BRINGING WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE POLAR LOW PUSHES ONLY
SLIGHTLY EAST...THEN MOVES SOUTHWEST AND REINFORCES POLAR AIR ONCE
AGAIN AROUND MID WEEK AS THE BLOCK SETS UP AGAIN OVER THE BERING
SEA. THE BASIC PATTERN OF HIGH OVER THE BERING AND LOW OVER THE
YUKON IS AGREED UPON BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...BUT THE EXACT
LOCATION IS STILL UP FOR GRABS. THE GFS IS TENDING TOWARD THE HIGH
BEING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WHICH
WOULD BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 131 135.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 121 129 130 132 150 155 172 175 176.
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 125 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 155
                      160 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 07