Small Craft Advisory 154, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST SUN FEB 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EAST IS BEGINNING TO
CHANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS DISSIPATING. THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN TRAPPING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG UNDER IT AND WITH THIS WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE THE
FOG IS BEGINNING TO GO AWAY. STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF STRATUS IN THE
GULF AND IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AS WELL OVER THE NEXT DAY. A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY. PAST
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN UNSURE AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS
LOW BUT IT NOW SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF IN THE UPPER
980 MBS. THIS LOW WILL MOSTLY EFFECT THE GULF COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING
KODIAK ISLAND. MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL ONLY SEE SOME CLOUDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY MID WEEK.

IN THE WEST THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND THEN
OUT OF THE ARE BY MID WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT SHOULD MAINLY JUST EFFECT THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER
MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 07