Gale Warning 202, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 131228
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-140300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A COMPLEX LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BECOMES A 981 MB LOW TUE
EVENING 150 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA. THIS LOW WEAKENS TO 991 MB WED NIGHT
150 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFIES TO 985 MB
AS IT MOVES TO 250 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-140300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-140300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-140300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-140300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-140300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
 

$$

PKZ170-140300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-140300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-140300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-140300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.  
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-140300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-140300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-140300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST MON FEB 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE JET STREAM REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AWAY FROM THE AREA AS WELL.
THERE ARE ENOUGH DYNAMICS HOWEVER TO BRING A LOW IN HE MID 980 MB
RANGE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING GALES TO A
NUMBER OF THE MARINE AREAS AROUND THE GULF AND RAIN AND SNOW TO GULF
COASTAL AREAS. SINCE THIS LOW DOES NOT HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
OF THE JET STREAM IT WILL FADE FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR THAT WILL KEEP
THE LOW FROM MOVING ONSHORE IS A LARGE RIDGE IN CANADA. THOUGH THIS
RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IT IS UP TO 1047 MB AND WILL
KEEP THE GULF LOW FROM PROGRESSING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE HAS A
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE LOW
IN THE GULF. THIS IS CAUSING MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA AND WILL HELP THE SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THAT AREA.

THERE REMAINS A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS LOW
WILL PERSIST FOR A WHILE AS IT DRIFTS NORTH OF SHEMYA TUESDAY AND
THEN GETS PULLED BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES THAT
ONE SHOULD BE AWARE OF. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ON THE LOW IN THE
GULF. THE GFS DISSIPATES THE LOW TUESDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST
GULF WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE LOW IN POSITION IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE THE
THERMAL GRADIENT DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS LOW SURVIVING INTO WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 07