Small Craft Advisory 1041, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
515 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS OVER THE EAST DOMAIN ARE HANDLING THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE
PATTERN WELL. HOWEVER THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT
NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE BERING LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS OR WITH EACH MODEL
ITSELF...EXCEPT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DECIDE BETWEEN A TRACK ABOVE OR
BELOW THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. UNTIL THEY START MERGING TO ONE
TRACK...HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE NORTHERLY SOLUTION ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND INTO THE GULF
IS BEING PUSHED BY A WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH BEHIND THAT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW JUST
EAST-NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CONTINUES TO PUSH RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST THEN INLAND WHERE SNOW IS MIXING IN. THE LOW IS PULLING COLD
AIR INTO THE GULF FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE CREATING
VERY GUSTY WINDS OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS. A
GALE FORCE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
AND HEADING NORTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST DOMAIN...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE GULF LOW AND WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION
TO SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE DAY. DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON
AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL FOR TODAY AS THE THERMAL
PACKING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE NOT AT THE OPTIMUM PLACE AS WE
HOPED...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. A
BRIEF RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TRAVELS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF AND
OVER KODIAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND HANG IN THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS WARM AS THE PREVIOUS...HOWEVER
STILL EXPECT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT TYPE OVER KODIAK AND ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COASTS.
WEST DOMAIN...THE LOW TRAVELING NORTHEAST BELOW THE CHAIN WILL BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND TO CLEAR OUT CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
CURRENTLY UNDER A WEAK RIDGE WHICH IS ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
PUSH THROUGH. EXPECT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO
BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR HOLDS IT OFF FROM
COMING ANY FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS STATED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION...THE WEST IS HAVING A HARD TIME
RESOLVING A SOLUTION AND THEREFORE IS QUITE UNCERTAIN IN THE LONG
RANGE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO BE SETTING UP WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE DOWN FROM THE
ARCTIC. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WOULD ALSO KEEP SOUTHCENTRAL IN A MOSTLY
DRY PATTERN AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR DEC 07