Gale Warning 980, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 111746 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
845 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

CORRECTED ZONE 141 HEADLINE

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 MB LOW 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 
YAKUTAT BAY AT 997 MB TUE AFTERNOON. A 991 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 
160 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY LATE WED MORNING THEN TO 60 NM 
SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1004 MB LATE WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-120300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
645 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF CAPE CLEARE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. W OF CAPE CLEARE...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING 
TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-120300-
RESURRECTION BAY
645 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-120300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
645 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-120300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-120300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
645 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-120300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-120300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
645 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. LOCAL AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-120300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
645 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-120300-
KACHEMAK BAY
845 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 120057
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
AN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL TRACK TO 56N 155W WED MORNING AT 993 MB 
AND THEN WEAKEN TO 1004 MB AS IT MOVES TO 58N 150W THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-121500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-121500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-121500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-121500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-121500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-121500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-121500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-121500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-121500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
515 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS OVER THE EAST DOMAIN ARE HANDLING THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE
PATTERN WELL. HOWEVER THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT
NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE BERING LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS OR WITH EACH MODEL
ITSELF...EXCEPT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DECIDE BETWEEN A TRACK ABOVE OR
BELOW THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. UNTIL THEY START MERGING TO ONE
TRACK...HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE NORTHERLY SOLUTION ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND INTO THE GULF
IS BEING PUSHED BY A WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH BEHIND THAT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW JUST
EAST-NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CONTINUES TO PUSH RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST THEN INLAND WHERE SNOW IS MIXING IN. THE LOW IS PULLING COLD
AIR INTO THE GULF FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE CREATING
VERY GUSTY WINDS OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS. A
GALE FORCE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
AND HEADING NORTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST DOMAIN...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE GULF LOW AND WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION
TO SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE DAY. DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON
AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL FOR TODAY AS THE THERMAL
PACKING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE NOT AT THE OPTIMUM PLACE AS WE
HOPED...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. A
BRIEF RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TRAVELS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF AND
OVER KODIAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND HANG IN THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS WARM AS THE PREVIOUS...HOWEVER
STILL EXPECT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT TYPE OVER KODIAK AND ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COASTS.
WEST DOMAIN...THE LOW TRAVELING NORTHEAST BELOW THE CHAIN WILL BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND TO CLEAR OUT CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
CURRENTLY UNDER A WEAK RIDGE WHICH IS ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
PUSH THROUGH. EXPECT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO
BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR HOLDS IT OFF FROM
COMING ANY FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS STATED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION...THE WEST IS HAVING A HARD TIME
RESOLVING A SOLUTION AND THEREFORE IS QUITE UNCERTAIN IN THE LONG
RANGE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO BE SETTING UP WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE DOWN FROM THE
ARCTIC. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WOULD ALSO KEEP SOUTHCENTRAL IN A MOSTLY
DRY PATTERN AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR DEC 07