Gale Warning 981, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 121241
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW 65 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL WEAKEN TO 993 MB
AS IT MOVES TO 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY LATE THIS MORNING THEN
INTO THE GULF. A 1003 MB WILL FORM OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WED
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK TO 110 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1005 MB
THU MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 350 NM
SOUTH OF KISKA THU AFTERNOON AT 992 MB THEN TO 180 NM SOUTH OF ADAK
LATE THU NIGHT AT 997 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-130300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-130300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-130300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-130300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-130300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-130300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
120 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS CENTERED FROM
EASTERN ASIA TO THE BERING SEA WITH WEAK RIDGING ALONG WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA. THE JET IS WELL SOUTH OF ALASKA AS IT COMES OUT
OF ASIA BUT CURVES NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF. THIS IS
SERVING TO DRIVE STORMS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN INTO THE GULF.

THERE ARE TWO STORMS OF INTEREST THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS A LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE TROUGH AXIS (IN THE UPPER AND LOWER
LEVELS) EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW BACK WESTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
ANCHORAGE...SO THAT MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER BASIN WESTWARD TO ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT-SU. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT. COLD ADVECTION
IS ALSO OCCURRING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND HAS CHANGED WHAT WAS
MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING IN THE ANCHORAGE/MAT VALLEY TO ALL SNOW.

THE SECOND SYSTEM IS A LARGE MATURE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. IT IS TRACKING EASTWARD AFFECTING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WITH THE TYPICAL KIND OF WEATHER FOR THIS YEAR...RAIN AND SNOW AND
SOME GALE FORCE WINDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS DONT HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
DETAILS OF WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT SYNOPTICALLY
LOOK GOOD. WILL HAVE USE PATTERN RECOGNITION/CONCEPTUAL MODELS TO
FORECAST SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ALEUTIAN LOW AND
ARE ALL TRENDING TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A SECONDARY
LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. THIS LOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT LOW AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF. HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK VERY
CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THIS LOW DUE TO GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ONCE LOW REACHES THE GULF...BUT
ALL SHOW A DISSIPATING LOW AS ANOTHER LOW COMES UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
MODELS ARE ALSO CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WITH NEXT LOW OUT WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALL KEEPING THE THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN. GFS HAS JUMPED MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWARD...IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. BECAUSE CURRENT FORECAST WAS
BASED OFF A MUCH FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WILL MAKE A JUMP TO THE NEW
GFS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...EASTERLY TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WILL CUT OFF OVER
ANCHORAGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. SO SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT FLURRIES OR A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MEANWHILE SNOW WILL SPREAD TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL...INCLUDING ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
INT THESE AREAS AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT MAKE IT AS
FAR NORTH...SO MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE FOR KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GULF
COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SOME CLOUDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AKPEN AND PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL JUST SKIM THE ALEUTIANS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK AND RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AND PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...GFS 500MB 5-WAVE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING
RIDGE BUILDING OVER BERING AND TROUGH SETTING UP OVER GULF/WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THUS...EXPECT COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MAINLAND
ALASKA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE MAJOR STORMS ARE HELD OVER
THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 155 165 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 07