Small Craft Advisory 1022, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
408 AM AST THU DEC 6 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THIS MORNING...A STRONG BUT VERTICALLY STACKED AND WEAKENING LOW IS
PRESENT JUST SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE BERING STRAIT AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY RAIN...IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS MOVING NORTHEAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE AND SEEM TO BE GETTING WORSE...IN
PARTICULAR REGARDING A COMPLEX OF LOWS IN THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FAVORED A BLEND OF
MODELS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN MADE JUST MINOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST AFTER THAT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
RAIN HAS ALREADY BEGUN AT KODIAK EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL TAPER
OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE USUAL AREAS...THOUGH WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COME NEAR ANY WARNING CRITERIA. THE
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY RAIN...HAS ALREADY REACHED
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE KENAI EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL BE SLOW TO
SPREAD INLAND TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD FURTHER INLAND.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
FROM KENAI NORTH TO ANCHORAGE PALMER AND TALKEETNA TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN KENAI EAST TO CORDOVA. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER MAINLAND SOUTHCENTRAL. RAIN WILL
BE FAST TO RETURN...WITH RAIN RETURNING TO KODIAK DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND TO COASTAL MAINLAND SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY EVENING. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GET CUTE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD FALL ALONG THE COAST AS THERE
WILL BE A TROPICAL CONNECTION. HERE WE GO AGAIN.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY IS BRINGING
MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...AND GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN CHANNELED TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TONIGHT BUT...LIKE SOUTHCENTRAL...THE BREAK
WILL BE SHORTLIVED. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN BERING WILL
BRING A RETURN TO RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OUT WEST WITH NUMEROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS...MOST BEING STRONG. THE LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE
BERING STRAIT TONIGHT AND OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONG LOW FORMS SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TONIGHT AND
MOVES NORTH INTO THE EASTERN BERING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE A
WEAKER LOW MOVES TO JUST NORTH OF AMCHITKA. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
HORRIBLE ONCE THE STRONG LOW ENTERS THE EASTERN BERING...BUT VERY
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT PERSISTS FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT ALL MODELS KEEP UP
WITH NUMEROUS STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONE 413.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165
         170 172 175 176 179 180 185 351 352 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY DEC 07