Small Craft Advisory 1020, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED DEC 5 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS MODEL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPER SHOWS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF
THE STATE. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH TODAY AND WILL DIMINISH THE SHOWERS AROUND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO EASTERN ALASKA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN
CANADA FRIDAY. THE FRONT OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL WEAKEN ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST FRIDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA, SUSITNA
VALLEY AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WILL
BECOME SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...A NEW WEATHER FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY, KENAI PENINSULA AND
THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM IS SUPPORTED BY A STRONG
300 MB JET COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND COULD DROP A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING THEN WILL DISSIPATE
ALONG THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AS SNOW
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE ALASKAN PENINSULA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS WILL INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
FRIDAY. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...
A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE BERING
CREATE RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING INTO THE CHUKCHI BY FRIDAY MORNING. AREA
OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 500 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTER WILL BE
MOSTLY FOUND ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COUPLE OF NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORMING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY WILL MERGE INTO A SINGLE CENTER LATE FRIDAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN CANADA
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. A SHORT WAVE OVER BRISTOL BAY
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
CANADA SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL BUILD INTO MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE
INTO CANADA MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120, 1225, 130, 132, 138, 140, 141, 160, 170, 179,
              180, 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 07