Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE WARNINGS...WATCHES/ADVISORIES BOTH CONVECTIVE
AND NONCONVECTIVE...MUCH CURRENT ACTIVE WX OTHERWISE...PLUS PRETTY
EXTENSIVE GRIDS MODIFICATIONS SO THIS COULD NOT HELP BUT BE PAST
DEADLINE. WILL BE SHORT AND HIT MOST IMPORTANT HIGHLIGHTS. SEVERE
TSRA WATCH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND S NM WITH TORNADO WATCH TO E OF
THAT FOR MOST OF THE REST OF E NM. SNOW ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR W
HIGH TERRAIN FOR TONIGHT AND N HIGH TERRAIN INTO SAT
AM...RELATIVELY LOW GRADE ADVISORIES DUE TO RAPID MOVEMENT OF
UPPER SYSTEM AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT MUCH OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL
BE DONE BY TIME THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ON
ROADS...LOWER ENOUGH TO ENCOMPASS ROADS OR POPULATION CENTERS THAT
WOULD MAKE AN ADVISORY MEANINGFUL. CONSIDERED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ROUGHLY E THIRD OF NM...BUT RELATIVE LACK OF ANTECEDANT
MOISTURE...EXCEPTING A COUPLE OF VERY NARROW ROWS IN E NM...AS
WELL AS RAPID STORM MOVEMENT SEEMED TO BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ISSUANCE. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RISK OF TRAINING E
QUARTER OF NM WHERE THOSE FEW NARROW ROWS OF EARLIER STORM TOTAL
PCPN SHOULD SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  41  59  37  67 /  50  50  20   5
GALLUP..........................  36  57  30  64 /  60  50  10   5
GRANTS..........................  36  59  28  64 /  60  50  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  42  64  38  73 /  60  20   5   5
CHAMA...........................  32  53  28  59 /  70  60  40   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  33  57  35  64 /  60  50  20   5
RED RIVER.......................  33  48  30  53 /  60  50  20   5
TAOS............................  37  57  34  60 /  60  50  20   5
SANTA FE........................  37  54  35  64 /  60  40  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  38  57  36  65 /  60  40  20   5
ESPANOLA........................  37  60  39  69 /  60  50  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  44  61  44  68 /  60  30  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  41  62  42  70 /  60  30  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  60  40  66 /  60  30  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  61  44  68 /  60  30  10   5
SOCORRO.........................  41  67  42  71 /  50  20   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  35  55  37  59 /  60  30  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  59  34  65 /  70  30  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  37  69  40  70 /  70  20   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  41  63  41  62 /  70  20   0  20
RATON...........................  38  59  33  66 /  60  40  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  36  59  35  64 /  60  30   5   5
ROY.............................  39  60  40  66 /  70  40   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  45  66  41  71 /  70  40   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  43  70  46  72 /  70  20   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  71  44  71 /  70  20   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  47  70  45  73 /  80  20   0  10
CLOVIS..........................  50  71  45  71 /  80  30  10  20
PORTALES........................  50  72  46  71 /  80  30  10  30
ROSWELL.........................  51  74  48  70 /  80  20   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ014.

SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002-004-008.

&&

43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1015 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007

NMZ001>021-026-241200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
1015 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007

UPDATED SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER MOST OF CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST CHAVES
COUNTY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THIS INCLUDES FROM NEAR
CLAYTON...TO CONCHAS...VAUGHN AND ALL OF LINCOLN COUNTY...EAST TO
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CHAVES COUNTY...DE BACA COUNTY...FAR NORTHWEST
ROOSEVELT COUNTY...AND ALL OF QUAY COUNTY. WHILE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME TODAY OR TONIGHT...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 3PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND 3 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE SEVERE STORMS WILL INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN
MOUNTAINS COULD ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7500 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAINLY
ABOVE 7500 FEET. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE
THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.
LISTEN FREQUENTLY TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND STAY INFORMED WITH YOUR
PREFERRED WEATHER SOURCE FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.
RELAY YOUR REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
236 PM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007

NMZ005-006-011-012-232115-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE
COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
236 PM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER WESTERN GUADALUPE AND CENTRAL SAN
MIGUEL COUNTIES...

AT 235 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRUJILLO TO PASTURA. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT
50 MPH. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS FALLING WITH THESE STORMS AND
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS LIKELY AS THESE STORMS PASS THROUGH
THE REGION.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANTON CHICO...COLONIAS...
DILIA...MAES...MILAGRO AND PINTADA.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

GUYER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
441 PM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007

NMZ009-232315-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
441 PM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007

AT 434 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MOVING NORTH OVER THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK COATING OF
HAIL THROUGH 500 PM. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN WHILE DRIVING
ACROSS THE REGION AS VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED BELOW ONE HALF MILE
WITH THIS HAIL SHOWER. ROADWAYS MAY ALSO BECOME SLICK AS SMALL HAIL
ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS.

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
442 PM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             3 E AMISTAD             35.92N 103.10W
03/23/2007  M1.00 INCH       UNION              NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN 3/4 TO 1 INCH LAST HOUR.

&&

MP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
455 PM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             FORT SUMNER             34.48N 104.24W
03/23/2007  M0.75 INCH       DE BACA            NM   PUBLIC

&&

MP