Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Albuquerque, NM

000 
WWUS55 KABQ 230549
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT THU MAR 22 2007

NMC005-011-230615-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070323T0615Z/
DE BACA-CHAVES-
1147 PM MDT THU MAR 22 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
CHAVES AND DE BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM MDT...

AT 1143 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TAIBAN TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF
MESA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES EAST OF FORT SUMNER TO
32 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROSWELL...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHWAYS 60 AND 84 AROUND 1150 PM MDT...
  MESA AROUND 1205 AM MDT...
  FORT SUMNER AROUND 1215 AM MDT...

SEVERE STORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MOVE INDOORS AND
AVOID WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3397 10395 3337 10485 3412 10485 3459 10426
      3459 10395

$$

DPORTER

000 
WWUS55 KABQ 230617
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1217 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007

NMC005-011-230627-
/O.EXP.KABQ.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070323T0615Z/
DE BACA-CHAVES-
1217 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHAVES
AND DE BACA COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3397 10395 3337 10485 3412 10485 3459 10426
      3459 10395

$$

DPORTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 PM MDT THU MAR 22 2007

CORRECTION TO ADD DETAILS ABOUT ANY FLOOD AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WX DAY MUCH OF THE STATE WITH TSRA EMPHASIS
ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OF THE MANY
THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR THIS PACKAGE...THE THREE MAIN CONSIDERATIONS
SETTLED ON WERE WHERE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSRA THREAT WAS MOST
LIKELY TO BE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR SOME PORTIONS OF NM AND THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W AND N MAINLY FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. FOR
THE FIRST IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA E OF A ROUGHLY KROW TO KTCC
LINE HAS TO BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING...THEN GENERALLY S OF A CLAYTON TO SOCORRO LINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVE. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL BE IN THE WIND AND
HAIL CATEGORIES. FFA POTENTIAL DISCUSSED WITH ALL FORECASTERS IN
OFFICE PLUS OUR HYDROLOGIST AND IT WAS FELT THAT WITH NO FURTHER
TRAINING GOING ON OR EXPECTED IN THE LARGER SCALE E/SE TONIGHT AT
LEAST THAT AREA SHOULD BE OK. QUITE DRY THERE PREVIOUS TO THIS
BATCH OF RAINFALL AND MOST AREAS THERE SHOULD STILL BE FAR FROM
DEEPLY SATURATED SOIL-WISE. OTHER CONSIDERATION WAS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE STATE. SNOWMELT HAS STARTED SIGNIFICANTLY EARLIER
THAN THE NORM AND MANY SPOTS BELOW 8500 FEET HAVE LOST ALL OR
MOST OF THEIR SNOWCOVER...THOUGH N SLOPES MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE
STILL. THE GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF THE DAY FRI SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTN REGIONS AND THOSE LIKELY HAVE THE LEAST SNOWPACK BELOW
ABOUT 8500 OR 9000 FEET WHICH WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SNOW
LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD. SO SNOWMELT WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE
RUNOFF GENERATED BY RAINFALL. BY FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN THE LAST SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF PCPN MOVES THOUGH...SNOW LEVELS
WILL HAVE FALLEN TO BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET SO AT THAT TIME
VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTION EXPECTED. LASTLY SNOWFALL
HIGHLIGHTS WERE CONSIDERED THEN NAY-SAYED SINCE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
NOT LOWER TO CRITICALLY LOW ENOUGH LEVELS ANYWHERE FOR A WATCH TO
BE CONSIDERED UNTIL LATER FRI NIGHT...THIRD PERIOD FOR THIS
PACKAGE. ALSO CURRENTLY IT APPEARS AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE HIGH
ADVISORY TO LOW WARNING RANGE. SO A LITTLE TOO LATE FROM NOW AND
MARGINALLY TO LITTLE TO REALISTICALLY ISSUE A WATCH PRODUCT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER THIS FOR LATER THIRD AND FOURTH
PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  60  38  59 /  30  50  40  50
GALLUP..........................  40  57  35  54 /  50  50  50  60
GRANTS..........................  40  58  35  57 /  40  60  50  60
GLENWOOD........................  48  63  40  63 /  50  60  60  50
CHAMA...........................  36  54  30  52 /  30  50  60  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  57  33  56 /  40  50  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  35  51  30  47 /  30  50  50  60
TAOS............................  38  59  35  56 /  30  40  50  60
SANTA FE........................  41  59  36  54 /  40  50  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  42  60  38  57 /  40  50  50  40
ESPANOLA........................  44  61  37  59 /  40  50  50  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  48  61  44  61 /  40  60  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  45  62  42  62 /  40  60  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  58  42  60 /  40  60  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  61  43  61 /  40  50  50  40
SOCORRO.........................  49  62  41  66 /  40  60  60  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  55  35  54 /  40  60  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  42  58  35  58 /  40  60  60  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  65  37  66 /  50  70  60  40
RUIDOSO.........................  45  58  41  60 /  50  60  60  40
RATON...........................  40  65  38  58 /  20  40  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  41  60  36  57 /  30  50  50  40
ROY.............................  47  63  40  58 /  30  40  60  50
CLAYTON.........................  48  69  46  65 /  30  40  60  60
SANTA ROSA......................  48  69  43  68 /  40  50  60  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  52  71  51  69 /  40  50  60  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  52  67  48  68 /  40  60  70  40
CLOVIS..........................  53  70  51  69 /  50  60  70  40
PORTALES........................  55  70  51  70 /  50  60  70  40
ROSWELL.........................  55  69  51  73 /  50  60  70  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1115 AM MDT THU MAR 22 2007

UPDATE TO ADD SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NMZ001>021-026-231200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
1115 AM MDT THU MAR 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT TUCUMCARI TO ROSWELL. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE. FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE WESTWARD TO ROUGHLY A CLAYTON TO RUIDOSO LINE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING TO
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...FROM CLAYTON
TO SANTA ROSA AND RUIDOSO ON EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES IN DIAMETER
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 7500 FEET.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN ABOUT NOON PM AND 10 PM
MDT.

43

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1057 PM MDT THU MAR 22 2007

NMZ018-019-230530-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
1057 PM MDT THU MAR 22 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER NORTH CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY...

AT 1055 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELKINS.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL NORTH CENTRAL
CHAVES COUNTY AND RURAL SOUTHEASTERN DE BACA COUNTY.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES OR WARNINGS.

DPORTER