Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 090301
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
757 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

AZC019-090400-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-060809T0400Z/
PIMA AZ-
757 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MST
FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 755 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PIMA 
COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE NOTED NEAR MARANA...NORTHWEST 
TUCSON AND THE CATALINA FOOTHILLS. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE WEST AND 
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING 
NEAR EASTERN TUCSON.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 
MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 930 PM MST.

LAT...LON 3226 11059 3184 11056 3188 11094 3191 11130
      3250 11128 3250 11091

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
212 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
WESTWARD...WITH AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER AIR CHARTS THIS MORNING SHOWED UPPER HIGH OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. FURTHER WEST THE FLOW IS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER LOW
IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. CLOSER LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWED THAT THERE IS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
EL PASO MOVING WEST AROUND 15 MPH. 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED BETTER
FLOW THAN YESTERDAY WITH EL PASO A SMIDGE STRONGER. GOES
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WHILE A WEDGE OF
DRIER WITH VALUES DOWN NEAR AN INCH IN FAR SE AZ/SW NM. HOWEVER
THIS WEDGE HAS BEEN DECREASING AS HIGH VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON EL PASO. SO FAR THIS HAVE
BEEN WORKING OUT AS WHAT WAS SAID IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION. THE
FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE WEST OF TUCSON WHERE HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE ISSUE. THE DRIER AIR EAST OF TUCSON HAS INHIBITED DEEPER
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PUT TUCSON RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE WHERE
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD HAPPEN OR IT IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
THE DISTURBANCE NEAR EL PASO WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MAY HAVE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY GOING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WARM.

NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH UPPER HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MEAN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THUS
EXPECT THE WEATHER TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH DAY-TO-DAY
VARIABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON