Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 090136
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
633 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

AZC023-090200-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-060809T0200Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
633 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MST
FOR CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

AT 625 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
PATAGONIA LAKE...OR NORTH OF NOGALES...MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

REMEMBER...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST 
FOR THE EASTERN ONE-HALF OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WHICH INCLUDES 
NOGALES...PATAGONIA LAKE...AND THE TOWN OF PATAGONIA. 

LAT...LON 3149 11062 3169 11065 3170 11096 3147 11093

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 090205
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
703 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

AZC023-090213-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-060809T0200Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
703 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
EXPIRED AT 700 PM MST...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING WAS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCEED OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...VERY 
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS 
MOVING WEST. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM 
MST FOR SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. 

LAT...LON 3149 11062 3169 11065 3170 11096 3147 11093

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
212 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
WESTWARD...WITH AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER AIR CHARTS THIS MORNING SHOWED UPPER HIGH OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. FURTHER WEST THE FLOW IS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER LOW
IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. CLOSER LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWED THAT THERE IS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
EL PASO MOVING WEST AROUND 15 MPH. 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED BETTER
FLOW THAN YESTERDAY WITH EL PASO A SMIDGE STRONGER. GOES
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WHILE A WEDGE OF
DRIER WITH VALUES DOWN NEAR AN INCH IN FAR SE AZ/SW NM. HOWEVER
THIS WEDGE HAS BEEN DECREASING AS HIGH VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON EL PASO. SO FAR THIS HAVE
BEEN WORKING OUT AS WHAT WAS SAID IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION. THE
FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE WEST OF TUCSON WHERE HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE ISSUE. THE DRIER AIR EAST OF TUCSON HAS INHIBITED DEEPER
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PUT TUCSON RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE WHERE
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD HAPPEN OR IT IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
THE DISTURBANCE NEAR EL PASO WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MAY HAVE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY GOING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WARM.

NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH UPPER HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MEAN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THUS
EXPECT THE WEATHER TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH DAY-TO-DAY
VARIABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON