Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 090410
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
908 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

AZC023-090500-
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
908 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MST FOR
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

AT 900 PM MST...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN 
ACROSS MOST OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. AT 845 PM MST...THE PATAGONIA 
POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED HIGH AND SWIFT FLOWS IN THE WASHES AND 
SMALL STREAMS IN AND AROUND PATAGONIA. LOCAL OFFICIALS WERE ALSO 
MONITORING SONOITA CREEK CLOSELY AS MORE RUNOFF INTO THE CREEK CAN 
BE EXPECTED YET THIS EVENING. 

REMEMBER...BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO 
RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT 
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT 
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3135 11112 3135 11046 3173 11046 3172 11116

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 090502
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1000 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

AZC023-090507-
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
1000 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRED AT 1000 PM MST FOR SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY...

AT 955 PM MST...RADAR SHOWED SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING 
ACROSS PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. OVERALL...THE AREAL COVERAGE AND 
INTENSITY OF RAIN HAD DIMINISHED. 

ALTHOUGH THE WARNING HAD EXPIRED...RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINS AND 
SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL KEEP WASHES AND SMALL STREAMS RUNNING 
AT HIGH LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 

ALSO...A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS OVER SONORA MEXICO WHICH MAY 
EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF 
HEAVY RAINFALL REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL WARNINGS WILL 
LIKELY BE ISSUED.  

LAT...LON 3135 11112 3135 11046 3173 11046 3172 11116

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
212 PM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
WESTWARD...WITH AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER AIR CHARTS THIS MORNING SHOWED UPPER HIGH OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. FURTHER WEST THE FLOW IS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER LOW
IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. CLOSER LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWED THAT THERE IS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
EL PASO MOVING WEST AROUND 15 MPH. 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED BETTER
FLOW THAN YESTERDAY WITH EL PASO A SMIDGE STRONGER. GOES
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WHILE A WEDGE OF
DRIER WITH VALUES DOWN NEAR AN INCH IN FAR SE AZ/SW NM. HOWEVER
THIS WEDGE HAS BEEN DECREASING AS HIGH VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON EL PASO. SO FAR THIS HAVE
BEEN WORKING OUT AS WHAT WAS SAID IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION. THE
FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE WEST OF TUCSON WHERE HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE ISSUE. THE DRIER AIR EAST OF TUCSON HAS INHIBITED DEEPER
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PUT TUCSON RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE WHERE
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD HAPPEN OR IT IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.
THE DISTURBANCE NEAR EL PASO WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MAY HAVE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY GOING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WARM.

NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH UPPER HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MEAN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THUS
EXPECT THE WEATHER TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH DAY-TO-DAY
VARIABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON