Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 280302
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
759 PM MST THU JUL 27 2006

AZC011-280315-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-060728T0315Z/
GREENLEE AZ-
759 PM MST THU JUL 27 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MST
FOR GREENLEE COUNTY...

AT 754 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. VERY 
HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.  
THE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR GUTHRIE...OR ABOUT 28 MILES EAST OF 
SAFFORD...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  9 MILES NORTHWEST OF DUNCAN BY 815 PM MST

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3318 10919 3368 10926 3369 10945 3308 10948
      3287 10934 3287 10927 3281 10922 3256 10905
      3299 10907

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SHOEMAKER

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 280322
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
819 PM MST THU JUL 27 2006

AZC011-280329-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-060728T0315Z/
GREENLEE AZ-
819 PM MST THU JUL 27 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GREENLEE COUNTY EXPIRES AT 815
PM MST...

THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED WEST INTO GRAHAM COUNTY. 
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL STILL BE 
POSSIBLE. RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3318 10919 3368 10926 3369 10945 3308 10948
      3287 10934 3287 10927 3281 10922 3256 10905
      3299 10907

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST THU JUL 27 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN COLORADO...NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SATELLITE...RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
A GOOD PORTION OF NEW MEXICO AND DEVELOPING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND THE
ACTIVITY ON THE RIM WILL BLOSSOM. EXPECTING A STORM COMPLEX TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENINGS AND HEAD TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN DESERTS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN MY
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY IT WILL MERGE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE WEST INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF HEAVY RAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT DUMPED
CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH OCCURRED IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH SEVERAL AREAS RECEIVING
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. THEREFORE WITH THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS AND WITH THE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING UNTIL 8 PM MST FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

BY SATURDAY THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL HAVE DRIFTED TO A LOCATION THAT
WILL GENERALLY EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTHWEST...
BUT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THAT TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A
BIT LESS ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. STARTING
ON MONDAY A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. IF SO...THEN RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CATEGORY AND THIS IS WHAT
I HAVE GOING IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THEREAFTER HIGHS WILL CLIMB
SLOWLY EACH DAY TO NEAR 100 BY LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL BE BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WHICH
IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ019-029>035
     (NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY...SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...UPPER GILA
      RIVER VALLEY (GRAHAM COUNTY)...WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...TOHONO
      OODHAM NATION...EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND
      COCHISE COUNTY) FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING UNTIL 8 PM MST
      FRIDAY EVENING.
&&

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
252 PM MST THU JUL 27 2006

AZZ019-029>035-281400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
252 PM MST THU JUL 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH
8 PM MST FRIDAY EVENING...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THESE
STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. LAST
NIGHT MANY AREAS WERE ESPECIALLY HARD HIT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WELL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IN MANY PLACES...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS
REPORTING AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. WITH THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND FROM THE RAINS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. IN
ADDITION...A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT SINCE
THE AIRMASS WAS STABILIZED DUE TO THE COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH
8 PM MST FRIDAY EVENING...

TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO DROPS
SOUTH IT WILL MERGE WITH A TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
DURING THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM MST FRIDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MAKE
ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR MAY
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED. A FEW OF
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS..BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.