Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 280730
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1221 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

AZC019-281000-
PIMA AZ-
1221 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 1221 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM THE 
CATALINA MOUNTAIN TO CORONA DE TUCSON MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. 
ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY WEST...THEY HAVE HAD A 
HISTORY OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES PER HOUR 
ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF TUCSON. AN AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES 
ALONG THE AGUA CALIENTE WASH AT TANQUE VERDE WASH REPORTED 0.63 
INCHES OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES. IN ADDITION...A TRAINED WEATHER 
SPOTTER NEAR SPEEDWAY AND HARRISON RECEIVED 0.75 INCHES IN 30 
MINUTES. 

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CITY OF TUCSON AS THEY MOVE WEST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EAST AND 
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA...THE CATALINA AND 
RINCON MOUNTAINS. 

LAT...LON 3232 11092 3209 11092 3206 11067 3205 11046
      3252 11046 3252 11084

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 280754
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1244 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

AZC019-281000-
PIMA AZ-
1244 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 1244 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM ORO VALLEY 
TO GREEN VALLEY...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED 
VERY HEAVY RAIN RAINFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CATALINA AND 
RINCON MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST SIDES OF TUCSON.
AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES ATOP MOUNT LEMMON INDICATE 1.06 TO 1.38 INCHES 
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. RAINFALL RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL FILL INTO 
THE SABINO CREEK AND ALDER CANYON. IN ADDITION...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL 
RUNOFF WILL DRAIN INTO THE AGUA CALIENTE WASH...WHERE AUTOMATED RAIN 
GAGES REPORTED 0.67 AND 0.75 INCHES HAD FALLEN IN A SPAN OF 15 TO 20 
MINUTES. 
 
ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS HAVE PICKED UP SPEED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS 
TUCSON...THEY ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF AN 
INCH AND HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO 
AREA.
 
ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS NORTHEAST OF TUCSON IN FAR EASTERN PINAL AND 
FAR SOUTHWEST GRAHAM COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS TUCSON. 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS ATOP THE RAINFALL FROM THESE 
STORMS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RUNOFF 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3237 11120 3204 11117 3206 11067 3205 11046
      3252 11046 3252 11084

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 280832
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
123 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

AZC019-281000-
PIMA AZ-
123 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

ALTHOUGH NO STORMS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE TUCSON METRO AS OF 123 AM 
MST...RAINFALL RUNOFF CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY FILL INTO CREEKS LOCATED 
IN THE CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SABINO AND 
ALDER CANYON WATERSHEDS. IN ADDITION...NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND 
ROADWAY DIPS ARE FILLED WITH RUNNING WATER ON THE NORTHEAST AND 
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE WASHES 
THAT FEED INTO THE AGUA CALIENTE WASH. 

ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM KEARNY TO ORACLE TO 
REDINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH INTO  
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES WITH THESE STORMS ARE 
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THESE 
STORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL...POSSIBLY 
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  

LAT...LON 3237 11120 3204 11117 3206 11067 3205 11046
      3252 11046 3252 11084

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 280957
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
256 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

AZC019-281015-
PIMA AZ-
256 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY EXPIRED AT 300 
AM MST...

THE SECOND LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND 
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA...MISSING THOSE AREAS THAT 
RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 3 AM MST.

HOWEVER...DUE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...SOME MINOR FLOODING 
MAY STILL BE OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY IN IN THE ALDER AND SABINO CREEK 
WATERSHEDS...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF 
TUCSON. 

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE PASSAGE.
 
LAT...LON 3237 11120 3204 11117 3206 11067 3205 11046
      3252 11046 3252 11084

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST THU JUL 27 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH THROUGH PARTS OF THE GILA
RIVER VALLEY AT 9 PM MST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NEW MEXICO WAS LIKELY PROVIDING THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO HELP DEVELOP THIS COMPLEX. DEEP MOISTURE...MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX SHOULD SUPPORT THE
PROPAGATION AND ADVECTION OF ORGANIZED STORMS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT. THE CURRENT TRACK AND
MOVEMENT WOULD PUT STORMS INTO THE GREATER TUCSON AREA BY 11 PM
MST THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO
UPDATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE INFO ON LATER FORECAST PERIODS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN COLORADO...NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SATELLITE...RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NEW MEXICO AND DEVELOPING OVER
THE MOGOLLON RIM. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH AND THE ACTIVITY ON THE RIM WILL BLOSSOM. EXPECTING A
STORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS AND HEAD TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DESERTS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN MY FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY IT WILL MERGE WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE WEST INTO
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE AREA. THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT DUMPED CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH OCCURRED IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH
SEVERAL AREAS RECEIVING AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.
THEREFORE WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS AND
WITH THE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING UNTIL 8
PM MST FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

BY SATURDAY THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL HAVE DRIFTED TO A LOCATION THAT
WILL GENERALLY EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTHWEST...
BUT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THAT TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A
BIT LESS ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. STARTING
ON MONDAY A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. IF SO...THEN RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CATEGORY AND THIS IS WHAT
I HAVE GOING IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THEREAFTER HIGHS WILL CLIMB
SLOWLY EACH DAY TO NEAR 100 BY LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL BE BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WHICH
IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ019-029>035
     (NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY...SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...UPPER GILA
      RIVER VALLEY (GRAHAM COUNTY)...WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...TOHONO
      OODHAM NATION...EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND
      COCHISE COUNTY) FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING UNTIL 8 PM MST
      FRIDAY EVENING.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
252 PM MST THU JUL 27 2006

AZZ019-029>035-281400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
252 PM MST THU JUL 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH
8 PM MST FRIDAY EVENING...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THESE
STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. LAST
NIGHT MANY AREAS WERE ESPECIALLY HARD HIT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WELL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IN MANY PLACES...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS
REPORTING AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. WITH THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND FROM THE RAINS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. IN
ADDITION...A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT SINCE
THE AIRMASS WAS STABILIZED DUE TO THE COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH
8 PM MST FRIDAY EVENING...

TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO DROPS
SOUTH IT WILL MERGE WITH A TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
DURING THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM MST FRIDAY EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MAKE
ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR MAY
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED. A FEW OF
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS..BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1047 PM MST THU JUL 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             SAFFORD                 32.83N 109.70W
07/27/2006  M0.25 INCH       GRAHAM             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CSHOEMAK