Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 282035
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
135 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

AZC003-282130-
COCHISE AZ-
135 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 127 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE RAINFALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY. UPWARDS TO 1.25 
INCHES HAS FALLEN OVER THE HEREFORD SINCE THE 1230 PM MST. 
PREVIOUSLY...SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FELL OVER BOTH THE 103 FIRE 
AND THE BREWERY GULCH AREA OF THE CITY OF BISBEE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BISBEE...THE 
103 FIRE...AND HEREFORD.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3134 11034 3134 11020 3141 10977 3153 10987
      3145 11035

$$
SCHAFFNER
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND
DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR LAST NIGHTS STORMS CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE VICINITY OF GALLUP,
NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IMPACTED MY
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE STORMS PRODUCING FLOODING
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MY FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS
WERE ALSO LIKELY SEVERE YESTERDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES AS STORMS WITH BOW SIGNATURES
DROPPED OFF THE RIM TOWARD THE LOWER VALLEYS AND DESERTS. NO
CONFIRMATION ON THE SEVERITY OF THOSE STORMS AT THIS TIME HOWEVER.

IN ADDITION...THE SANTA CATALINA MOUNTAINS JUST NE OF TUCSON
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVERNIGHT...AND ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CATALINAS AND TOWARD THE TUCSON METRO AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE CATALINAS DURING THE PAST HOUR RANGE FROM AROUND TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH TO NEARLY ONE INCH AT ONE LOCATION. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
RECEIVED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH IN AN HOUR.

FARTHER UPSTREAM ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS SPINNING OFF THE UPPER LOW
AND PUSHING INTO THE REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND HEADED TOWARD MY FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING EVENING HOURS AS WELL
WITH WAVE AFTER WAVE EJECTING OFF THE UPPER LOW RESULTING IN A
REGENERATION OF STORMS ON THE RIM AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
DESERTS AND VALLEYS. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THIS LOW GOING
NOWHERE IN THE NEAR FUTURE...MY INCLINATION IS THAT THIS WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER...I
WILL HAVE MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THAT IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION ONCE I GET A CHANCE TO LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS MORE
CLOSELY.

SO FAR THE FORECAST FOR TODAY SEEMS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ019-029>035
     (NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY...SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...UPPER GILA
      RIVER VALLEY (GRAHAM COUNTY)...WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...TOHONO
      OODHAM NATION...EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND
      COCHISE COUNTY) UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING.
&&

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

AZZ019-029>035-290300-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
355 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL
PUSH SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED
RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. A
FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS..BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.