Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 27, 2006Pima County, Santa Cruz County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 27, 2006, 3:25 AM MST for Pima County, Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 27, 2006, 3:25 AM MST (10:25 UTC)
Expired: Jul 27, 2006, 4:15 AM MST
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Pima County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 57 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 504 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -71 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2159 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KTWC 271029
SVRTWC
AZC019-023-271115-
/O.NEW.KTWC.SV.W.0083.060727T1025Z-060727T1115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST THU JUL 27 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
  SANTA CRUZ COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

* UNTIL 415 AM MST

* AT 325 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
  LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF GREEN VALLEY TO 5 MILES NORTH
  OF MADERA CANYON TO 10 MILES NORTH OF SONOITA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15
  TO 20 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  AMADO BY 330 AM MST
  TUBAC BY 345 AM MST
  SONOITA BY 345 AM MST

IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING 
WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3178 11115 3184 11083 3188 11046 3151 11046
      3143 11078 3141 11115

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 271104
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
403 AM MST THU JUL 27 2006

AZC019-023-271115-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-060727T1115Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-PIMA AZ-
403 AM MST THU JUL 27 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM MST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

AT 400 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TUBAC TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF MADERA CANYON 
TO PATAGONIA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PATAGONIA BY 405 AM MST
  TUMACACORI AND PATAGONIA LAKE BY 415 AM MST

IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING 
WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3176 11115 3174 11081 3176 11046 3135 11046
      3136 11076 3134 11106

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 271117
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
416 AM MST THU JUL 27 2006

AZC019-023-271126-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-060727T1115Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-PIMA AZ-
416 AM MST THU JUL 27 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND 
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES EXPIRED AT 415 AM MST...

AT 415 PM MST...THE AREA OF STORMS IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY HAD 
DIMINISHED TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS APPEARED 
TO STILL BE GENERATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UP TO 1 INCH AND GUSTY 
WINDS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3176 11115 3174 11081 3176 11046 3135 11046
      3136 11076 3134 11106

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 27, 2:35 AM MST, 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 2:35 AM MST, 50 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 AM MST THU JUL 27 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG OUTFLOW FROM A COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN GRAHAM
COUNTY AS WELL AS A DEVELOPING COMPLEX THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COCHISE COUNTY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS WILL PERSIST SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWED
BY A DOWN PERIOD WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER. SHOULD
SEE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 26, 5:23 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	67 min
Jul 27, 1:09 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	36 min
Jul 27, 1:41 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	64 min
Jul 27, 2:42 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise, Santa Cruz	2 hr
Jul 27, 2:50 PM MST	Flash Flood Watch	TWC		4 days
Jul 27, 4:16 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Greenlee	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.