Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 270909
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
202 AM MST THU JUL 27 2006

AZC019-021-271045-
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
202 AM MST THU JUL 27 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

AT 200 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXTENDED FROM NEAR ORACLE JUNCTION 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAIN AREAS. SOME 
GAGE REPORTS OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS INCLUDE:

1.85 INCHES AT ORACLE RIDGE
1.26 INCHES AT SAMANIEGO PEAK
1.34 INCHES AT SUMMERHAVEN
0.55 INCHES AT MANNING CAMP

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAN 
MANUEL...ORACLE...CATALINA...SUMMERHAVEN...AS WELL AS AREAS IN AND 
AROUND THE CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF WASHES 
AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH FLOOD PRONE HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES.

LAT...LON 3262 11048 3269 11110 3229 11098 3204 11045

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 270954
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
246 AM MST THU JUL 27 2006

AZC019-021-271045-
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
246 AM MST THU JUL 27 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

AT 240 AM MST...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY 
RAIN CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY NEAR RED 
ROCK...EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTY NEAR MARANA ALONG 
INTERSTATE 10. ANOTHER AREA EXTENDED FROM THE RINCON MOUNTAINS 
THROUGH THE VAIL AREA NEAR INTERSTATE 10. STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE 
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SOME GAGE REPORTS FROM OVER THE 
PAST FEW HOURS INCLUDE:

1.89 AT ORACLE RIDGE
1.34 AT SAMANIEGO PEAK
1.50 AT MT LEMMON
1.46 AT MANNING CAMP
1.14 AT DAVIDSON CANYON WASH NEAR INTERSTATE 10
0.87 AT CIENEGA CREEK NEAR INTERSTATE 10

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ORACLE...RED 
ROCK...CATALINA...AREAS IN AND AROUND THE CATALINA AND RINCON 
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS INTERSTATE 10 SOUTH OF THE RINCON MOUNTAINS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF WASHES 
AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH FLOOD PRONE HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES.

LAT...LON 3266 11048 3260 11137 3237 11125 3235 11090
      3190 11073 3191 11046

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 PM MST WED JUL 26 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS
VERY LIMITED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO COCHISE
COUNTY WHERE SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAINED IN EFFECT LATE
THIS EVENING. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A LARGE
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -76C AND STILL COOLING. THE OVERALL
MOVEMENT OF THIS COMPLEX WAS SOUTHWEST. IF IT CONTINUES...
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER DESERTS YET TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED POP VALUES IN OUR LOWER DESERTS
OVERNIGHT SINCE ELEVATED DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER HIGH
GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH
THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH RESULTING IN GENERALLY NE TO E
FLOW ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA...WHICH WAS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEST
BEFORE WEAKENING TO JUST A REMNANT LOW BY AROUND 48 HOURS...AT WHICH
TIME IT WOULD BE IN THE GENERALLY VICINITY OF 27.5N LAT 118.6 W
LONG.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AFTER THE STRONG SURGE THAT OCCURRED
TUESDAY MORNING AND A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME TODAY...ALTHOUGH A
BIT WEAKER. GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES IN EXCESS
OF ONE INCH AREAWIDE. MODELS PROG THE HIGH TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER WEST INTO THE
PACIFIC WATERS. HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING AN INVERTED TROUGH TO MOVE FROM WEST TEXAS/NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA. MAV MOS POP GUIDANCE FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z RUN
INCREASED CONSIDERABLY FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. CASE
IN POINT...DOUGLAS SHOWED A POP OF 69% AND 60% FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY ON THE 00Z RUN. ON THE 12Z RUN THE NUMBERS
INCREASED TO 91% AND 79% FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SIMILAR CHANGES
CAN BE SEEN FOR OTHER MOS GUIDANCE LOCATIONS...BUT PERHAPS NOT QUITE
AS DRAMATIC. BASED ON THIS MODEL TREND DECIDED TO INCREASE POP FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. OTHER ARIZONA OFFICES
FELT THE SAME CHANGE WAS NEEDED AND HAVE OR WILL MAKE CHANGES AS
WELL.

ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH WEAKENS LATE IN THE WEEKEND A TROUGH COMING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC...ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF COULD
BRING DRIER WESTERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PERHAPS
WESTERN ARIZONA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...
STARTING ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY POPS ARE GENERALLY LOW END OF
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR
WESTERN DESERTS. IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND OF DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW MAY HAVE TO TRIM POPS A BIT MORE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL HOVER AROUND 90 DEGS F FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 7 TO 9 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
THEREAFTER HIGHS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY WITH READINGS BACK
TO THE UPPER 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
256 AM MST WED JUL 26 2006

AZZ019-029>035-271000-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
256 AM MST WED JUL 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AREAS AND RATES WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE AS WELL AS GENERATE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AFTER SATURDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT...BUT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.