Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 130209
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
808 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

OKC035-130245-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-060313T0245Z/
CRAIG OK-
808 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 845 PM CST FOR CRAIG
COUNTY...

AT 804 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF HOLLOW...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CRAIG COUNTY
AND WILL AFFECT THE CITY OF VINITA. 

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WELCH.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

LAT...LON 3698 9504 3695 9501 3651 9524 3662 9543
      3696 9542 3699 9527 3699 9504

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 130217
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
817 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

OKC035-130245-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-060313T0245Z/
CRAIG OK-
817 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 845 PM CST FOR CRAIG
COUNTY...

AT 812 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAILIA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BLUEJACKET AND
WELCH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE TAKE COVER ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

LAT...LON 3695 9501 3653 9503 3653 9531 3662 9543
      3694 9531 3699 9527 3699 9504

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
719 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE SUPERCELL OVER OKFUSKEE COUNTY IS NOW SPLITTING.  THE LEFT SPLIT
WILL CONTINUE ON A MORE NORTHERLY PATH AND DEVELOP AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND BE A VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT INTO CREEK COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT 45 MINUTES.  THE RIGHT SPLIT WILL FAVOR A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND A TORNADO THREAT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TULSA METRO
AREA.

THE COMPLEX SUPERCELL IN THE SAND SPRINGS AREA SHOULD ALSO GO THROUGH
THIS SPLIT PROCESS WITH A TORNADO THREAT FROM THE RIGHT SPLIT STORM
ACROSS TULSA AND ROGERS COUNTIES.

ALL INTERESTS IN TULSA...CREEK...ROGERS...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE AND
WAGONER COUNTIES SHOULD MOVE TO A HIGH STATE OF READINESS.

THESE STORMS ARE EXHIBITING LOW-PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS...MEANING
THE CIRCULATINS WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE HIGH REFLECTIVITY AT TIMES
AND IT CAN BE A PROLIFIC HAIL PRODUCER.  AN INITIAL NEGATIVE TO
TORNADO PRODUCTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT SPREADS...BUT THIS PARAMETER MAY WORSEN WITH TIME AS THE CELL
MOVES TOWARD HIGHER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1205 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT...SPREADINDEX=64.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE THIS MORNING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG AND
HELICITIES IN THE RANGE OF 200 M2/S2...SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY WILL RACE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MILES AN HOUR.

GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES...STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND DRY
VEGETATION FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY. THE MOST
DANGEROUS AREA FOR FIRES WILL BE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN WITH THE MOST LIKELY BAD DAY BEING MONDAY WITH THE NORTH
WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR. THE THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
701 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     HAIL             SAND SPRINGS            36.14N 96.11W
03/12/2006  E0.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
725 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     HAIL             SPERRY                  36.30N 95.99W
03/12/2006  E0.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

0724 PM     HAIL             KIEFER                  35.94N 96.07W
03/12/2006  E0.75 INCH       CREEK              OK   PUBLIC

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
730 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             SAPULPA                 36.00N 96.11W
03/12/2006  M1.50 INCH       CREEK              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
733 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
03/12/2006  M0.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            68TH AND RIVERSIDE DRIVE

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
738 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     HAIL             3 W TULSA               36.13N 95.98W
03/12/2006  M1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
739 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
03/12/2006  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            29TH AND PEORIA

&&

JDS