Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 130035
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

OKC105-147-130100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-060313T0100Z/
WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA OK-
635 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR
NOWATA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 631 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF WANN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

LAT...LON 3684 9603 3678 9583 3699 9555 3701 9587

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 130046
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

OKC105-147-130100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-060313T0100Z/
WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA OK-
645 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR
NOWATA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 643 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF 
BARTLESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE STORM THAT ORIGINALLY PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERTORM WARNING 
HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. 

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...DEWEY AND WANN.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3676 9601 3655 9599 3700 9549 3700 9583

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
537 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
AT 23Z THE CAP INDEX HAD LOWERED ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA PORTION OF THE DRY LINE AND CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE
INCREASING FROM CREEK COUNTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH OF COPAN.
THESE CELLS ARE JUST FOWARD OF THE EFFECTIVE DRY LINE AND
AND LIKELY LACKING A LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE ENVIRONMENT AND
ARE NOT YET EXPLODING...HOWEVER THERE IS A SURGE ON THE PARIMARY
DRYLINE PUNCHING ACROSS PAYNE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AND WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE CELLS AND PROVIDE THE SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ENVIRONMENT TO COMPLETE THE PROCESS OF FULL INITIATION.

THE ISTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AXES REMAIN JUXTAPSOED FROM
THE MIAMI AREA BACK INTO OKMULGEE...THE WILL LIKELY BE THE ZONE
FOR BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND RESULTING LOWER LCLS.

CONDITONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A SIGNIFCANT SUPERCELL EVENT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1205 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT...SPREADINDEX=64.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE THIS MORNING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG AND
HELICITIES IN THE RANGE OF 200 M2/S2...SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY WILL RACE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MILES AN HOUR.

GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES...STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND DRY
VEGETATION FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY. THE MOST
DANGEROUS AREA FOR FIRES WILL BE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN WITH THE MOST LIKELY BAD DAY BEING MONDAY WITH THE NORTH
WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR. THE THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1234 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

OKZ054-055-121900-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
1234 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE AND WASHINGTON

AT 1234 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES WEST OF OKESA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKESA...HULAH AND COPAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             BUSCH                   36.46N 93.83W
03/11/2006  E1.75 INCH       CARROLL            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NMK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

OKZ055-056-130100-
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
614 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WASHINGTON AND NOWATA

AT 614 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LENAPAH...
WANN...BARTLESVILLE...DEWEY AND COPAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

OKZ054-130045-
OSAGE OK-
622 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE

AT 622 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF AVANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...AVANT AND WOLCO.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.