Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1044 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
DANGEROUS TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN CARROLL
COUNTY. THE REFLECTIVITY PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THIS CELL DURING ITS
TRACK ACROSS CARROLL COUNTY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1205 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT...SPREADINDEX=64.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE THIS MORNING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG AND
HELICITIES IN THE RANGE OF 200 M2/S2...SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY WILL RACE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MILES AN HOUR.

GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES...STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND DRY
VEGETATION FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY. THE MOST
DANGEROUS AREA FOR FIRES WILL BE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN WITH THE MOST LIKELY BAD DAY BEING MONDAY WITH THE NORTH
WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST DUE TO RETURN FLOW OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR. THE THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     HAIL             LOCUST GROVE            36.20N 95.17W
03/12/2006  E1.75 INCH       MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0949 PM     TORNADO          3 W GENTRY              36.27N 94.54W
03/12/2006                   BENTON             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
955 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     TORNADO          1 W PEGGS               36.08N 95.12W
03/12/2006                   CHEROKEE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1010 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

ARZ002-130515-
CARROLL AR-
1010 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL

AT 1010 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM 25
MILES WEST OF BUSCH...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAK GROVE...OAK HILL...PLEASANT
RIDGE...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...URBANETTE...GRANDVIEW...BUSCH
AND BEAVER.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS BENTON COUNTY...AND
WILL MOVE CLOSE TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CARROLL COUNTY WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR.  AS THE TRACK APPEARS MORE CERTAIN...A TORNADO WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR CARROLL COUNTY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

OKZ056-057-061-130500-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-ROGERS OK-
1016 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NOWATA...CRAIG AND ROGERS

AT 1016 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLLOW TO 6 MILES WEST OF
TALALA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF NOWATA...CRAIG AND ROGERS COUNTIES WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 1100 PM CST.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1059 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

OKZ061-130545-
ROGERS OK-
1059 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1145 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ROGERS

AT 1059 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3
MILES NORTHWEST OF VERDIGRIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLAREMORE...
CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS...TIAWAH...FOYIL...BUSHYHEAD AND CHELSEA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.