Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 11, 2006Carroll County, Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 11, 2006, 10:06 PM CST for Carroll County, Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 35 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 11, 2006, 10:06 PM CST (04:06 UTC)
Expired: Mar 11, 2006, 10:41 PM CST
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 11, 6:49 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 356 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1322 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -28 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1405 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 144 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.6
Supercell composite: 4.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 120406
SVRTSA
ARC015-087-120500-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0078.060312T0406Z-060312T0500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1006 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
  MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1100 PM CST

* AT 1003 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL
  AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREEN FOREST TO 7 MILES WEST
  OF WITTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BOSTON...
  WITTER...AURORA...RUDD...KINGSTON AND OSAGE.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

LAT...LON 3651 9337 3581 9392 3578 9353 3648 9328

$$

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 120422
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1022 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARC015-087-120500-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-060312T0500Z/
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
1022 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR
MADISON AND CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 1016 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CONNOR TO 2 MILES NORTH OF AURORA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MARBLE...
METALTON...RUDD...CABANAL...RULE...CONNOR...GREEN FOREST...COIN AND
DENVER.

LAT...LON 3651 9337 3581 9392 3578 9353 3648 9328

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 120441
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1041 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARC015-087-120451-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-060312T0500Z/
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
1041 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MADISON AND CARROLL COUNTIES
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3651 9337 3581 9392 3578 9353 3648 9328

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 11, 9:00 PM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 11, 9:00 PM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE SPC WE ARE EXPANDING TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 64 INTO CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...SEBASTIAN AND LE FLORE
COUNTIES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 1
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 1

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 11, 11:27 AM CST, 10 hours 39 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1126 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EAST OF A MIAMI TO MCALESTER LINE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=49.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FROM OSAGE COUNTY DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING. THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...FIRE DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN AS WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINE WITH DRY VEGETATION.
TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE CAPES ALONG THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS  INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MORE THAN
ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR WILL POWER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY RISK...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE EVEN GREATER ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE P

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 11, 9:34 PM CST, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     HAIL             4 NW CECIL              35.48N 93.99W
03/11/2006  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FSP

Local storm report, Mar 11, 9:37 PM CST, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     HAIL             MULBERRY                35.50N 94.05W
03/11/2006  E0.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JDS

Local storm report, Mar 11, 9:45 PM CST, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     TORNADO          OZARK                   35.49N 93.83W
03/11/2006                   FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO REPORTED WEST SIDE OF OZARK

&&

FSP

Local storm report, Mar 11, 9:49 PM CST, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
949 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     HAIL             EXCELSIOR               35.20N 94.31W
03/11/2006  E4.25 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   PUBLIC

&&

FSP

Local storm report, Mar 11, 9:50 PM CST, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0949 PM     TORNADO          2 N OZARK               35.52N 93.83W
03/11/2006                   FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FSP

Local storm report, Mar 11, 9:53 PM CST, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0949 PM     HAIL             GREENWOOD               35.22N 94.26W
03/11/2006  E1.75 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   PUBLIC

&&

FSP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 11, 7:22 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	31 min
Mar 11, 8:33 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sebastian	57 min
Mar 11, 8:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	53 min
Mar 11, 8:51 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford	54 min
Mar 11, 9:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	76 min
Mar 11, 9:26 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Franklin	64 min
Mar 11, 9:31 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll, Madison	44 min
Mar 11, 9:36 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Sebastian	51 min
Mar 11, 10:25 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Franklin	51 min
Mar 12, 12:13 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	62 min
Mar 12, 12:59 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.