Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 11, 2006Carroll County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 11, 2006, 7:22 PM CST for Carroll County, Arkansas. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 11, 2006, 7:22 PM CST (01:22 UTC)
Expired: Mar 11, 2006, 7:53 PM CST
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Carroll County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 11, 12:47 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr
Mar 11, 6:49 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 346 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2050 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 91 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 185 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 120121
SVRTSA
ARC015-120215-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0067.060312T0122Z-060312T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
722 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 718 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
  TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF BERRYVILLE...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...URBANETTE AND
  OAK GROVE.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

LAT...LON 3631 9365 3624 9354 3649 9329 3650 9360

$$

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 120137
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
737 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARC015-120215-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-060312T0215Z/
CARROLL AR-
737 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR
CARROLL COUNTY...

AT 735 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
OAK GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ROTATION.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE TAKE COVER ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

LAT...LON 3640 9354 3633 9343 3649 9329 3649 9346

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 120153
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
753 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARC015-120203-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-060312T0215Z/
CARROLL AR-
753 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CARROLL COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM.

LAT...LON 3640 9354 3633 9343 3649 9329 3649 9346

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 11, 6:47 PM CST, 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 11, 6:47 PM CST, 35 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
AT 6PM THE DRY LINE HAD CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RETREAT AND
EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF COFFEYVILLE TO SAND SPRINGS
AND ON INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  OF MORE IMPORTANCE
IS AN ACTIVITY BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
FROM NEAR BERRYVILLE TO STILWELL TO LAKE EUFAULA.  THE
CAP INDEX IS STRENGTHENING NOW WE ARE PAST PEAK HEATING.

ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ACTIVITY BOUNDARY AS 850 MB FLOW
BEGINS TO DIURNALLY STRENGTHEN.  A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE ELEVATED...THE
VERTICAL PRESSURE FIELDS IN ANY STRONG MESOCYLONES THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND
DEVELOP LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 1
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 1

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 11, 11:27 AM CST, 7 hours 55 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1126 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EAST OF A MIAMI TO MCALESTER LINE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=49.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FROM OSAGE COUNTY DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING. THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...FIRE DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN AS WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINE WITH DRY VEGETATION.
TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE CAPES ALONG THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS  INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MORE THAN
ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR WILL POWER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY RISK...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE EVEN GREATER ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE P

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 11, 4:47 PM CST, 2 hours 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
447 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HAIL             CHOUTEAU                36.19N 95.34W
03/11/2006  E0.75 INCH       MAYES              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

FSP

Local storm report, Mar 11, 5:05 PM CST, 2 hours 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             SALINA                  36.29N 95.15W
03/11/2006  E0.75 INCH       MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FSP

Local storm report, Mar 11, 5:20 PM CST, 2 hours 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
520 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             PENSACOLA               36.46N 95.13W
03/11/2006  E0.88 INCH       MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

&&

FSP

Special weather statement, Mar 11, 5:29 PM CST, 1 hour 53 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

OKZ058-120000-
OTTAWA OK-
529 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 529 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FAIRLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...
FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW...CARDIN
AND PICHER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

Local storm report, Mar 11, 6:30 PM CST, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             JAY                     36.42N 94.80W
03/11/2006  E1.75 INCH       DELAWARE           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

FSP

Special weather statement, Mar 11, 6:59 PM CST, 23 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
659 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARZ002-011-120145-
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
659 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL AND NORTHERN MADISON

AT 659 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
WEST OF HARMONY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAK GROVE...HARMONY...OAK
HILL...PLEASANT RIDGE...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...CABANAL...
URBANETTE...GRANDVIEW...FORUM...ALABAM...CLIFTY AND ROCKHOUSE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 11, 8:33 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sebastian	57 min
Mar 11, 8:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	53 min
Mar 11, 8:51 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford	54 min
Mar 11, 9:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	76 min
Mar 11, 9:26 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Franklin	64 min
Mar 11, 9:31 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll, Madison	44 min
Mar 11, 9:36 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Sebastian	51 min
Mar 11, 10:06 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll, Madison	35 min
Mar 11, 10:25 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Franklin	51 min
Mar 12, 12:13 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	62 min
Mar 12, 12:59 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.